Agricultural production this summer was very difficult.
The next crops may not be expected in Europe. Why is that? 🧵
Remote
Eric Maugendre about carbon
@maugendre@mas.to
mastodon 4.7.2Data scientist; researching climate forcing.
I calculate how to avoid much carbon emissions
Banner is a directed acyclic graph. Avatar shows a white man in a heatwave.
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Joined November 03, 2022
reduction of carbon emissions:
adaptation, work collectives:
data science:
Replying to
…
“Forest fires burn twice as much forest today as they did 20 years ago.”
“There are ways to sustainably manage a forest, like through thinning and prescribed burns, fire breaks, those sorts of things that don’t involve clear-cutting an entire forest, but leave the tree standing, leave the healthy ecosystem there, but are still kind of managing the fuel load,” she says.
A podcast with Elizabeth Goldman: https://news.mongabay.com/podcast/2026/08/forest-fires-likely-to-continue-to-burn-twice-as-much-without-serious-action-on-climate-change/
#wildfires #climateChange #firefighting #firefighters #fires #climatePolicy
Replying to
“I’ve spent over 50 years fighting fires, and I’ve watched this threat change beyond recognition,” said former Commissioner of Fire & Rescue NSW Greg Mullins.
“The fire seasons start earlier, burn hotter and run longer, because climate pollution from coal, oil and gas is heating the planet.”
Australia’s 2019-20 Black Summer disaster was one of the most catastrophic fire seasons in its history, killing 33 people directly, with an additional 417 deaths attributed to smoke inhalation.
Mr Mullins said that “in the six years since, we’ve added more pollution to the problem”.
“Governments that keep approving new coal, oil and gas projects are raising the risk of even worse fire disasters,” he said.
https://thepoint.com.au/new/260708-no-one-is-left-to-come-to-anyones-aid-former-emergency-chiefs-warn-of-a-new-era-of-bushfire-risk
#wildfires #Australia #climateRisks #climateChange #firefighting #firefighters #fires #climatePolicy #AusPol
Replying to
Dr. James Hansen: "If we want the accelerated warming to slow down, we must get Earth’s energy imbalance to decrease. That means the world needs to get serious about reducing the human made climate forcing, and the world has not got very serious yet." 🧵
Replying to
We should not be burning methane gas in our homes (or anywhere).
New research report: Scientists gave asthma patients free electric stoves to replace their gas stoves, then checked to see if symptoms improved.
Not only did symptoms improve but ditching gas was *better than medicine.*
https://www.climatecoloredgoggles.com/p/electric-stoves-asthma
#LNG #oilAndGas #GHG #emissions #methane #asthma #health #methaneGas #naturalGas #electricity #stoves
Boosted by @Dragofix@veganism.social
Replying to
Across 165 countries, the highest GHG emissions from diet are among highly educated urban men aged 15-34.
Median is 5.7 kgCO2e/day, against 2.9 for rural women aged 35-54 with low education. In others words, the impact on climate is roughly double in a group with more resources, choice, and agency.
Visualizer: https://matilda.food/
#diet #food #beef #animalProduction #deforestation #imports #GHG #carbon #emissions #climateChange #globalWarming
Replying to
Land and marine heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods, landslides, sea-level rise, super-charged typhoons, weather whiplash.
Climate forcing is harmful, fossil energies cause it, we know who the biggest perpetrators are.
"Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09450-9
#attribution #climateChange #climateForcing #oilAndGas
Replying to
RE: https://sfba.social/@PaulWermer/116960140119301865
Tree plantations often provide efficient wildfire fuel:
https://www.salon.com/2024/03/15/extinction-or-adaptation-the-plague-of-wildfires-in-chile-is-a-warning-for-our-future/
Quoting
@nikolas@journa.host @maugendre@mas.to
Excellent article, thanks for sharing it. It captures the range of problems we face, non-native monocultures selected w/o respect for local conditions and disregard of the complexity of ecosystems, but rather maximizing ROI without understanding (or thinking about) long term viability& sustainability. And all aggravated by the #ClimateCrisis, with impacts happening faster than predicted.
Yes, monocrop tree plantations are bad for a host of reasons, even if the trees are appropriate for the location.
The good news is there is some serious thinking about forest management -and that includes responsible timber harvesting in managed forests.
Wish there was more thought about how to reduce material consumption - as the demand for biodegradable single use products is one of those stressors on forests.
I'd love to see some serious journalism around HANPP (Human Appropriation of Net Primary Productivity) and how we get away from a lifestyle centered on disposable items.
Open quoted postA status report on commodities and on military hardware: https://no01.substack.com/p/so-much-winning
#humour #sarcasm #leverage #inflation #sellerInflation #commodities #Iran #Hormuz #warOnIran #agriculture #semiConductors #AIBubble #humor #water #markets #energyTransition #corruption #demandDestruction #military #fossilFuels
Replying to
RE: https://mas.to/@maugendre/112010185732864904
@juliensueur@social.vivaldi.net
Definitely. There already are research results and institutional recommendations to manage forests differently.
In France, the speed of forest adaptation is similar to the speed of housing adaptation: around zero.
Here is an example of negative speed elsewhere:
Quoting
"From the last boreal forests in Sweden to plantations in Brazil, via the New Zealand countryside and the wide open spaces of Poland and Romania, Disclose has traced the Swedish multinational’s supply chain."
A 90-minute documentary sheds new light on the insatiable appetite of the forest ogre: https://disclose.ngo/en/investigations/ikea-the-tree-hunter @climate#Ikea #DiscloseNGO #forests #CO2 #emissions #carbon #DiscloseNGO #quotas #deforestation #industry #industrialization #carbonFootprint #climateChange #furniture #Sweden
Open quoted postBoosted by @kkarhan@jorts.horse
Prediction markets function as financial redistribution machines.
A small cohort of traders capture most of the gains, while everyone else supplies the cash and the notion that this is collective intelligence.
“The top 1 per cent of users capture about 84 per cent of all gains, while the top 0.1 per cent capture nearly 60 per cent. In effect, most participants lose money to a small group of sophisticated traders…”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-the-investors-profiting-from-prediction-markets-the-top-1-of-course/
#finance #markets #futures #predictionMarkets
Replying to
Thank you for the good work @W_Lucht@mstdn.social
Now how do you think the two ministers will take the knowledge that you delivered?
Replying to
"Closely spaced or overlapping El Niño events create cumulative cloud suppression. Each El Niño phase actively reduces low-level stratocumulus and trade-wind cumulus clouds over vast tropical and subtropical ocean areas as part of the Bjerknes feedback loop. When the next El Niño develops before full cloud recovery during intervening La Niña or neutral conditions, the albedo loss becomes progressively more persistent, producing the observed multi-decadal linear decline. […] Major El Niño periods (especially 2015–16 and 2023–24) coincide with accelerated albedo drops and incomplete recoveries."
Ford, Gillon (2026). "The El Niño Ratchet Effect Overlapping El Niño Events as a Driver of Multi-Decadal Planetary Albedo Decline" https://www.academia.edu/167011795/The_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Ratchet_Effect_Overlapping_El_Ni%C3%B1o_Events_as_a_Driver_of_Multi_Decadal_Planetary_Albedo_Decline
#ElNiño #RatchetEffect #ENSO #massExtinction #massExtinctions #climate #climateChange #globalHeating #climateBreakdown #climateHeating #research #study
Replying to
Changing our diets and ways of producing food is crucial to combat climate change and increase human health. A key change is lessening the impact of meat and animal products like eggs and dairy. 🧵
#FAO #animalProduction #animalWelfare #food #animal #animals #welfare #deforestation #beef #chicken #poultry #imports #exports #agriculture #freeTrade #eggs #milk #diet #dairy #publicHealth #OneHealth #inflation #GreenHouseForcing #emissions #trade
Some activities are forcing climate change
CH4 emissions from livestock digestion:
- Pakistan doubles emissions between 2005 and 2024.
- Pakistan and Brazil each emit 3,000 Gg/year more in 2023 than in 2005.
#GreenHouseForcing #emissions #methane #beef #cattle #bovines #livestock #dairy #food #GHG #climateChange #FAO #EDGAR #Copernicus #CH4
"From the last boreal forests in Sweden to plantations in Brazil, via the New Zealand countryside and the wide open spaces of Poland and Romania, Disclose has traced the Swedish multinational’s supply chain."
A 90-minute documentary sheds new light on the insatiable appetite of the forest ogre: https://disclose.ngo/en/investigations/ikea-the-tree-hunter @climate#Ikea #DiscloseNGO #forests #CO2 #emissions #carbon #DiscloseNGO #quotas #deforestation #industry #industrialization #carbonFootprint #climateChange #furniture #Sweden
Replying to
Let's consider activities that force the Greenhouse Effect, thus @climate@a.gup.pe change. 🧵
#Livestock digestion emits too much #methane:
• People farm too many bovines in India, Pakistan, Brazil, United States, China;
• People farm too many goats in India, Pakistan, China, Nigeria;
• People farm too many pigs in China and the United States.
#GreenHouseForcing #emissions #goats #beef #cattle #bovines #dairy #food #GHG #climateChange #FAO #EDGAR #Copernicus #CH4 #climateBreakdown #climateCollapse
3 million years ago, greenhouse gas was lower (at 360ppm). Temperatures were warmer, and sea levels were 20 meters higher.
Professor Gavin Foster: “The reason we don’t see #Pliocene-like temperatures and sea-levels yet today is because it takes a while for Earth’s @climate@a.gup.pe to fully equilibrate (catch up) to higher CO2 levels and, because of human emissions, CO2 levels are still climbing.”
Julia Steinberger: https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-07-15/cogs-in-the-climate-machine/
#massExtinction #climate #globalHeating #climateBreakdown
Replying to
In the USA, retail #electricity purchases accounted for 43% of total residential sector end-use energy consumption in 2021. (Same as in my poll.)
#NaturalGas accounted for 42% of residential sector end-use energy consumption in 2021: https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/use-of-energy/homes.php
This diverges from my poll (which is at 15%) probably because of two differences: my cohort mostly is Northern Atlantic and my question was on space heating only.
⸺⸺⸺ #hashTags below ⸺⸺⸺
#nuclear #oilAndGas #propane
Replying to
"Modern high-volume hydraulic fracturing is a technique used to enable the extraction of natural gas or oil from shale and other forms of “tight” rock (in other words, impermeable rock formations that lock in oil and gas and make fossil fuel production difficult). Large quantities of water, chemicals, and sand are blasted into these formations at pressures high enough to crack the rock": https://www.oklahomaminerals.com/fracking-101
#fracking #pollution #fossilGas #naturalGas #oilAndGas #methane #energy #fossiFuels
Replying to
Atmospheric water vapour drives many important weather phenomena such as precipitation and drought.
The atmosphere *can* hold about 7% more water for every 1 °C (1.8 °F) rise in temperature.
The model is that saturation vapour pressure increases approximately *exponentially* with temperature under typical atmospheric conditions.
Under humid conditions, the rate at which perspiration evaporates on the skin is lower than it would be under arid conditions. With a dew point at 20° C (70° F), almost everyone feels "sticky".
When the air above the dew point is cooled, its moisture capacity is reduced, and when the temperature passes below the dew point, water vapour will condense, or precipitate, to form liquid water.
The dew point increases by about 1°C for every 5% increase in relative humidity (the ratio of how much water vapour is in the air to how much water vapour the air can contain).
Ref: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-2-225
#rain #sweat #meteorology #weather #droughts #climate #atmosphere
Replying to
Jong-Seong Kug said that El Niño and climate change may be locked into a vicious climate cycle. The study findings suggest global heating amplifies the impacts associated with super El Niños, and “makes the climate system more prone to persistent shifts once those impacts are triggered.”
“Super El Niño can shift the background climate conditions that people and ecosystems rely on.”
By Bob Berwyn, in April 2026: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25042026/el-nino-earth-warming/
Replying to
Greenhouse forcing:
"We find that the likelihood of the occurrence of climate regime shifts significantly increases in the context of super El Niño events due to their remarkable climate perturbations. This higher probability is detected across various climate elements, such as surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and surface soil moisture. In addition, we suggest that this boost effect of super El Niño events on climate regime shifts will be greatly amplified under future greenhouse warming."
Xue, A., Geng, X., Jin, FF. et al. (2025). "Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming" https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-66143-7
#RatchetEffect #acceleration #ENSO #ElNiño #massExtinction #massExtinctions #climate #climateChange #globalHeating #globalWarming #climateBreakdown #climateHeating #research #study
Replying to
@ecology@a.gup.pe @energyecon@a.gup.pe
"#MUFG, Japan’s largest bank and the world’s top LNG financier from 2021 to 2023, has brazenly stepped into the role of financial advisor for the controversial Papua LNG project. This venture, led by Total Energies, ExxonMobil, Santos, and ENEOS (JX Nippon), has already faced massive opposition, with 11 banks—including all major French and Australian financiers of its predecessor, PNG LNG—publicly refusing to finance it."
https://www.marketforces.org.au/mufg-backs-papua-lng/
#gas #LNG #naturalGas #PNG
Replying to
There still is a long way to go in the Indonesia fire season but total estimated emissions are reaching comparable levels to those of previous El Niño years toward the same end of August. You can play with charts at Fire Emissions Watch: https://apps.atmosphere.copernicus.eu/fire-emissions-watch/?r=IDN&d1=2026-07-31&d2=2026-08-27&lvl=subdivisions&t=2026-08-20T03
#wildfires #Indonesia #climateChange #dataViz
Replying to
"When landscapes transition from a prolonged standard drought into a [hairdryer spell] – or when the two overlap – they create a “hyper-flammable” state. […] Combined, they cause the fire danger to skyrocket, setting the perfect stage for fast-spreading and intense wildfires."
https://theconversation.com/flash-droughts-pull-alarming-amounts-of-moisture-from-the-landscape-and-intensify-wildfires-new-research-287879
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03809-9
#flammability #wildfires #megafires #climateChange
Replying to
"Thousands of firefighters and dozens of helicopters battle growing wildfires across Indonesia."
"The emergency has forced regional authorities to deploy over 48,000 firefighters and disaster personnel, the National Disaster Management Agency said."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/10/wildfires-burn-across-indonesia-as-officials-cite-el-nino-as-a-cause
#wildfires #Indonesia #climateChange
Replying to
'Opposing the privatisation of our native #forests is not an ideological one; it’s based on a history of the market failing nature even more appallingly than our governments have.'
In other words: neoliberalism doesn't save forests or #climate, which are intertwined.
https://thepoint.com.au/opinions/260806-who-the-greens-vote-with-matters-less-than-what-the-greens-vote-for
#treePlantations #foresters #forestry #Australia #AusPol #climatePolicy
Replying to
Replying to
Timber-production forests are twice less likely to burn as timber plantations:
"We find plantations in temperate regions were twice as likely to suffer stand-replacing wildfires than natural production forests, including in vital timber-producing nations like China and Russia. Plantations in tropical regions showed no clear effect".
Bousfield et al. (2025). "Global risk of wildfire across timber production systems" https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59272-6
#plantations #forests #wildfires #carbon #GHG #climateChange #emissions #CO2
Replying to
The expansion of LNG depends on the support of banks and asset managers who continue to pump unrestricted finance into the sector, with banks providing US$213 billion for LNG expansion between 2021 and 2023.
The #report assesses financial flows (project financing and corporate financing) to and investments (bonds and equity) in the 150 largest LNG developers: https://reclaimfinance.org/site/en/2024/12/05/frozen-gas-boiling-planet-how-the-support-of-banks-and-investors-to-lng-fuels-a-climate-disaster/
#LNG #oilAndGas #energy #GHG #exports #emissions #carbon #methane #assets #capacity #commodities #ReclaimFinance
Replying to
@rogue_cells@chaos.social
I would not bet on a ban of "borrowing money against the value of their stock, spending the borrowed money as if it were income, and then claiming they have no income for tax purposes."
@infobeautiful@vis.social