mastodon 4.7.3+glitch#NoBots
I know nothing of Snow and climate change. But its complexity is fascinating.
And how should our societies live within biophysical planetary boundaries?
*322ppm
"Reminds me of all the de-crufting you’ve always needed to do when you install Windows. Looks like we’ve gotten to the point on macOS too, where you need to run third-party scripts on a new OS installation to gain back control of your system resources and remove unwanted crapware."
https://arstechnica.com/apple/2026/10/command-line-tool-quickly-removes-apple-intelligence-from-macos-27/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=social
🤭
#MacOS
Nepal .
Sequence of events: chunk of the mountain side broke off and took the glacier on top of it with it.
Ie, not the glacier collapsed but its rock foundation did.
Expert forensics base this interpretation on the kinetic energy necessary to be registered as 5.7mag quake: https://www.science.org/content/article/how-scientists-unraveled-cause-devastating-flood-tibet-and-nepal
A Tibetan tour guide filmed the location after the break off and NYtimes posted the video:
https://bsky.app/profile/nytimes.com/post/3mu6ncq77hc2z
I added contrast to 2 screengrabs.
It looks to me, the remaining glacier is now a roof over what looks like an entrance to a cave-like hole in the mountain side.
Meaning, the event carved out a larger rock area than the glacier lid.
And that the glacier lid remained intact as seen at the very top of the arc, and now forms an overhang, to me means, that it was already disconnected from the mountain surface. Otherwise, it would have stayed glued to the mountain when that fell into the valley.
Disconnected from the mountain – despite gravity? Did the ice melt from below? Maybe by means of a river of meltwater that ran /runs between ice and mountain surface. And maybe, a heavy rain event during the preceding month helped increase the river flow.
Which in turn also means: the rock breaking lose was the first step in the drama caused by Exxon's lies and deceit. It truly wasn't a glacier collapse. It was a mountain collapse. Like the scientists say in the article on Science-org.
I find this cave-like carve-out remarkable. And I guess: it's due to permafrost thaw, maybe with help from a heavy rain event in the preceding month.
Petition: Besserer rechtlicher Schutz für Rad- & Fußverkehr!
Bislang verweisen Staatsanwaltschaften Straftaten von Autofahrenden gegen ungeschützte Verkehrsteilnehmende häufig mangels „öffentlichen Interesses“ auf den Privatklageweg. Das führt in der Praxis oft zur Straflosigkeit der Täter und hohen Kosten für die Betroffenen.
Forderungen der Petition:
* Konsequente Strafverfolgung: Das öffentliche Interesse an der Verfolgung von Autogewalt muss von Staatsanwaltschaften standardmäßig bejaht werden.
Klare Überholabstände: In § 315c StGB soll das Unterschreiten des Mindestabstands (1,5m innerorts / 2m außerorts) in der Regel als strafbar gelten.
Änderung der RiStBV: Regelungen streichen, die Verweise auf Privatklagen begünstigen.
https://epetitionen.bundestag.de/petitionen/_2026/_05/_26/Petition_201482.nc.html
RE: @ninawillburger@social.anoxinon.de
7 t … In his youtube "pop-up session" about Nepal, Daniel Swain showed flood footage where a boulder tumbled in the water. That boulder was about the same length, but it was round and also smooth. So an estimated double the weight wouldn't be far from reality.
Stunning. It got tumbled around in the racing water as if it were a bath toy.
Daniel's comment was something like: geomorphology in action. Landscaping like during the last deglaciation from which we can still find today such huge rocks willy-nilly in otherwise flat landscapes.
They got there in such violent events as in Nepal…
The Good Ancestor
Every day I walk a hundred years
to the hill where my great great granddaughter sits.
I carry words of blessing
and reach to touch her back.
But feeling me near she turns
sad eyed and heavy with grief
"What was it like?" she asks
"when the great whales swam
when the birds sang you awake
when the rains came soft
and the soil smelt sweet underfoot?"
And the blessings catch in my throat.
On darker days she turns,
her famished face charred and eyes,
sunk in their bony orbits,
burn with curses.
And the blessings
froth at my mouth
with the poisonous spume of betrayal.
On the darkest of all days
I walk the hundred years
and find no one there.
Let today be the bright day.
Let today be the bright day
I lay my hand upon her back
And, feeling me near, she turns
and blesses me, saying
"Your love was fierce enough,
sweet ancestor,
your love was fierce enough."
2019 by XR activist Daverick Leggett, "For Those Who Rise Today"
Cool article about 2 new papers, one a literature review and one a paleo view
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/04/new-orleans-sea-levels-relocation-climate-crisis
Good German article https://www.derstandard.at/story/3000000319484/new-orleans-muss-in-absehbarer-zeit-wohl-umgesiedelt-werden
But in sea level articles I always miss why this should be a problem and be addressed today. 30cm for New Orleans by 2100 doesn't sound much. What are the actual impacts? A flooded basement at king tide? So what? I don't get it.
In IPCC AR6-WG2 one learns that #by2030, Bangladesh has to relocated 2/3 of her Southern fossil power plants due to sea level rise. You read that right: by 2030.
So there's one hint why 30cm can be a real problem: corrosion via saltwater intruding from below. and from the surface inflow.
Another is soil: saltwater renders agricultural land unusable, 1 flood event is enough. Dunno why this is so.
And there's another factor: if you think in 3D, imagine that all the coastal ocean area gets the added power of 30cm more water forcing its way inland during tides? And during storms!? When the waves crash against beaches or dams, and with this much more force from the tons and tons of more water… WHAM!
Haha, G7 meets for environment topics, but omits climate change to 'protect this forum'.
All nations send enviro ministers.
But USA sends "Usha-Maria Turner, assistant administrator for the Office of International and Tribal Affairs at EPA."
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260423-g7-climate-change-omits-paris-meeting-us-france
'Protect this forum' when USA ridicules it by sending a lowly and off-topic official ?
Replace🇺🇸with Brazil and former G8-Russia with India! Even China would be more fruitful.
Gotta embrace the interesting times. Stop pretending we could all go back to normal in 2 years.
That "normal" was bad anyway. Bad for security, bad for environment and climate.
dafuc?! UK National Emergency Briefing
promotes an alleged German spin-off.
But look who is booked as speaker and probably also organizes the briefing.
Two neoliberals and a … performer of Ballads Of Utopia.
NEB should really get trademark protection for what they put together. So that dangerous idiots like Messner and Edenhofer can't claim to be doing anything remotely resembling what NEB did.
We simply don't have the scientists landscape in Germany. They're all cuddling their fluffy hopium blankets.
Anyone who really understood impacts and stakes logically can't continue promoting neoliberal concepts as remedy.
UK NEB rightly speaks of WW2 mobilisation-equivalent.
But THEY do, Messner (director of German EPA) and Edenhofer (2nd director of PIK) have nothing up their sleeves but neoliberal incrementalism, free market dynamics, and NIMBY-appeasement!
We're so fukced.
Can organizers in Spain, France, Nordic and Baltics please mute out ze Germans?
https://bsky.app/profile/nebriefing.bsky.social/post/3mkovmqdesc2z
Real cool. Post-Roman collapse 450CE, there was no wave of hordes of barbarians. Instead ze local Germans finally and suddenly mated with migrants from NL, UK, who had arrived much, much earlier but had (been) kept separate for unknown reasons
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10437-3
Had those fled rising sealevel? 🤔
Press release in English and German https://press.uni-mainz.de/after-rome-genomic-insights-from-southern-germany-on-the-formation-of-central-european-societies/
#archeogenetics
India and Pakistan suffer a too-early heatwave again.
Kachelmann has station measurements for cloudiness (Bedeckungsgrad des Himmels",
relative humidity ("Relative Luftfeuchtigkeit")
and temperature
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/messwerte/suedasien/bewoelkungsgrad/20260426-0700z.html
During the midday 3-hour period today, quite a few weather stations in the Northern parts reported the lethal outdoor-combination in %rel.humidity with °C for old people age 65+.
But I think, the also reported cloudiness was a life-saver for those who couldn't stay indoors. Clouds lessen the heat stress.
A table in Vanos et al 2023 shows the unsurvivable combination of temperature and % relative humidity for young and old people, indoors/shaded and outdoors/sun-exposed.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5/tables/2
(only look at the lines starting with
Corresponding Tair (°C). The other lines are sciency and a bit confusing.
)
Figure 4 in the paper shows the livability-thresholds, meaning, how hot+humid can it get for which activity, from merely sitting to heavy lifting. Very useful.
#Extremeweather #Heatwave #India #Pakistan #extremeheat #wetbulb
Global sea surface temperature, sst?
Preliminary data says, Friday was an all-time record high, surpassing even bananas El Nino year 2024.
But we're in a receding La Nina year. So the image below puts 2026 side by side with 2023.
Plus 2016 as the year with the than-highest "normal" sst.
The #Pacific today looks more like an intensified version of the El Nino year 2016 than like 2023. The North #Atlantic too.
The South Atlantic sst anomaly is one huge warm blob this year. I find this is doubly concerning because the air temperature anomaly there is neutral or cooler… https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/daily_maps/?dm_id=world-wt&wm_id=t2anom&year=2026
Terhaar et al 2025 ran two simulation experiments to look whether a jump year-on-year of 0.25C can be repeated by "our" climate models. The experiment with 11,000 model years finds 11 occurrences. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z
So while very rare, and virtually impossible without #ClimateChange , the jump of 0.25C year-on-year is physically plausible for the models.
That's good. They have all the formula magic needed to simulate freak outliers.
In all instances, the bananas sst reverts back to the previous normal by the next September.
In reality, by October 2025, sst did fall back to the previous normal+climatechange of 2016.
So the bananas years were a freak outlier.
However.
2026 is repeating it.
If the super El Nino year 2016 is still our "normal", we're seeing a jump of over 0.3C now.
Terhaar posted a thread about their paper and he covers this eventuality of sst not reverting back to normal with:
"we expect SSTs to return to pre-jump levels by September 2025. If this is not the case, climate sensitivity might be higher than thought." @polarocean.bsky.social@skywriter.blue
Nino and Nina compared.
Nino seasons have deep consequences in rain amounts. And with all the talk about the forecasted Super-El Nino, I wanted to know what the differences were.
You too? Here you go.
Maps show seasonal differences between Nino and Nina anomalies.
The first image shows rain data from #GHCN weather stations and sea surface temperature from ErsstV6.
The second image shows tmax from the weather stations and sst.
The underlying data are anomalies over 30-year running averages from 1870-2025, but computed as percent which makes plotting and merging different units in Panoply easy.
After the monthly anomalies were computed, the data got split into Nino and Nina months and seasons.
Made with https://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/panoply/
using data from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/sea-surface-temperature-extended-reconstructed/v6/access/
and GHCNdaily
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/
Oh, sh*t. How they narrated the socio-economic pathway SSP3 "National Rivalry" for the United Kingdom.
Ceases to exist in 2040, and by 2100 "a return to subsistence lifestyles is widespread across the (former) UK."
source: https://bsky.app/profile/jmbecologist.bsky.social/post/3mlzs7tk27k2w
James Bullock: "Looking again at the IPCC socioeconomic scenario SSP3 which we adapted for the UK a few years ago.
Everyone said it is highly unlikely…"
I dreamed that climate change made ocean water heavier – which then toppled such flimsy subsurface rock formations – which caused tsunamis – which then rolled ashore and ended civilisation within hours.
In my dream, I was angry about it because it didn't leave me time enough to yell "See? I told you so!"
Such an intriguing talk about archeo-genetics. I had no idea that the notion of Neanderthals mixing with arriving modern humans was so new, only since 2010 apparently.
https://bigthink.com/the-well/your-ancestors-arent-who-you-think-they-are/
David Reich speaks of his personal research biases and surprises, makes it all the more intriguing and humbling.
Where he says, something must be missing? I have my theory that the man-ape Udo who lived in Germany 11 mio years ago – when most of low-land Africa was far too hot for such animals, I reckon –, that Udo's line didn't go extinct outside Africa.
I think, they continued to live and evolve in the mid Northern latitudes.
In fact, they just recently published a new find of an in-between ape-line they had no idea existed, a lady who lived 6 or 7mio years ago somewhere in the Balkan.
I think, huminids or Neanderthals evolved in Europe and Eurasia, separate from African evolution.
Ha, maybe, it was Eurasians who brought the modern human to Africa? And they just haven't found traces of this migration yet in Eurasia due to #ClimateChange and several glaciations, destroying almost everything.
#archeology #anthropology #genetics #evolutionarygenetics
2/2 13. No other country in the history of the world has advanced progressive values more than this one. The United States is far from perfect. But it is easy to forget how much more opportunity exists in this country for those who are not hereditary elites than in any other nation on the planet.
American power has made possible an extraordinarily long peace. Too many have forgotten or perhaps take for granted that nearly a century of some version of peace has prevailed in the world without a great power military conflict. At least three generations — billions of people and their children and now grandchildren — have never known a world war.
The postwar neutering of Germany and Japan must be undone. The defanging of Germany was an overcorrection for which Europe is now paying a heavy price. A similar and highly theatrical commitment to Japanese pacifism will, if maintained, also threaten to shift the balance of power in Asia.
We should applaud those who attempt to build where the market has failed to act. The culture almost snickers at Musk’s interest in grand narrative, as if billionaires ought to simply stay in their lane of enriching themselves . . . . Any curiosity or genuine interest in the value of what he has created is essentially dismissed, or perhaps lurks from beneath a thinly veiled scorn.
Silicon Valley must play a role in addressing violent crime. Many politicians across the United States have essentially shrugged when it comes to violent crime, abandoning any serious efforts to address the problem or take on any risk with their constituencies or donors in coming up with solutions and experiments in what should be a desperate bid to save lives.
The ruthless exposure of the private lives of public figures drives far too much talent away from government service. The public arena—and the shallow and petty assaults against those who dare to do something other than enrich themselves—has become so unforgiving that the republic is left with a significant roster of ineffectual, empty vessels whose ambition one would forgive if there were any genuine belief structure lurking within.
The caution in public life that we unwittingly encourage is corrosive. Those who say nothing wrong often say nothing much at all.
The pervasive intolerance of religious belief in certain circles must be resisted. The elite’s intolerance of religious belief is perhaps one of the most telling signs that its political project constitutes a less open intellectual movement than many within it would claim.
Some cultures have produced vital advances; others remain dysfunctional and regressive. All cultures are now equal. Criticism and value judgments are forbidden. Yet this new dogma glosses over the fact that certain cultures and indeed subcultures . . . have produced wonders. Others have proven middling, and worse, regressive and harmful.
We must resist the shallow temptation of a vacant and hollow pluralism. We, in America and more broadly the West, have for the past half century resisted defining national cultures in the name of inclusivity. But inclusion into what?
Excerpts from the #1 New York Times Bestseller The Technological Republic: Hard Power, Soft Belief, and the Future of the West, by Alexander C. Karp & Nicholas W. Zamiska techrepublicbook.com
End Quote.
https://nitter.poast.org/PalantirTech/status/2045574398573453312#m The post has 20million views as of now. … #Palantir #TechnologicalRepublic
In Bower et al 2019 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JC015014
one learns that water or particle transport from near Africa's coast to Brazil takes 6 to 8 years.
Getting from Brazil to just across the equator takes another 6 or 12 years for "warm" or "cold" particles respectively.
Not as continuous flow (drip ^^) but occurs in bouts of sprints and crawls.
The water flows into the Atlantic from the warm Indian Ocean or through the Drake Passage from the Pacific.
But what if… the Northward pull (or the push from the South?!) has already weakened – enough?
Looking at Southern winter months in the two regions' sea surface temperature anomalies.
The sprints and crawls in the water transport are seen as the amplitudes of the year-on-year temperature jumps.
As long as big jumps do occur every 2 or 3 years, I'd say the Northward pull (or push from the South?) is still working.
But both regions stop their big jumps and damp their variability year-on-year to mere ±0.3°C.
The stop occurs in 1971 for the Southern-most region and in 1984 for the region north of it.
Nice 13 year coincidence, by the way, isn't it? To me, this indicates the possibility that the stop-years are the result of changed AMOC water transport, as opposed to chaotic influence from their box-region's weather.
Since 1971 / 1984, the water just sits there, and gets warmed along with our AGW. But the motor that used to pull it (or pushed it) is too weak now to still cause large sprints.
Assume AMOC stop as inevitable and the drop to 5sv occurs by 2125. It cools the NH slowly and does the other changes slowly. Once AMOC stops, a 2nd rapid cooling + rapid changes occur, eg., rapid Antarctic heating by 6C, even 10C in some places.
The higher the CO2 concentration, the s-lower the cooling and other changes.
But: the higher the CO2 concentration, the hotter the Southern Hemisphere gets.
Now consider Solar Radiation Meddling, SRM.
SRM could only be worth a debate if it could be applied to only the Southern Hemisphere, right? As a tool for keeping the Southern half of the planet as close to the now-climate as possible, despite warming from AMOC slowdown and despite warming from GHG.
If SRM can't accomplish that but adds more unknowns to the system, it is bad advice.
From 2023 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01738-w
"…SRM could delay but ultimately not prevent WAIS collapse in a high-emissions scenario."
"…indicates that WAIS collapse might be prevented by SRM under an RCP 4.5 scenario even for mid-century interventions, however with a substantial risk of failure (35%)"
If a stopping AMOC heats Antarctica by as much as a high emission scenario, SRM won't stop the melting?
But that was for a globally acting SRM. I can't find information on whether atmospheric mixing allows the confinement to Southern Hemisphere alone.
I've seen a paper looking at SRM to cool the Arctic. Can't find it now. From memory, some latitude confinement was possible when SRM is deployed only on very high latitudes. It still affects mid latitudes then but doesn't go further.
Might be the same on the Southern latitudes, dunno. Their jetstream is less wavy due to more sea surface, so mixing of SRM particles can be kept in check even better than in the Northern Hemisphere, I guess.
@iinavpov@mastodon.online @W_Lucht@mstdn.social @precariousmind@neopaquita.es @dmacphee@mas.to
Ja, like one of Merkel's CDU colleagues who said last week that PV are more dangerous than nuclear reactors because people keep falling from their roof installing the panels. … While really, it's not PV killing them but
