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Mike @ Misaligned Markets

@MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
mastodon 4.7.3
  • Open on zirk.us

California native, chronic night owl, and writer managing a whole mess of personal projects (plus a sprawling homelab). Currently building https://misaligned.markets to discuss modern political economy. Previously ran a blog called Philosimplicity.

12 Followers
363 Following
32 Posts
Joined November 11, 2024
Blog:
https://misaligned.markets/
How the AI bubble will pop:
https://misaligned.markets/what-to-expect-ai-bubble/
Latest post: SpaceX IPO:
https://misaligned.markets/rapid-unscheduled-devaluation/
Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@mike @socketwench The thing that chodes like Peter Thiel don’t understand is that progress relies on innovations whose value can’t be captured. Whether it’s Newton or Einstein creating theories that lead to technologies they’ll never see (or patent), open source software, or hell the very language we’re using to express ourselves… Real progress is anti-rival, built on ideas that get better the more they’re shared. Something Thiel's winner-take-all capitalism cannot produce.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago

#capitalism is fundamentally a game over asymmetric enforcement of property rights. Nowhere is that clearer than with digital goods, where rights holders control what counts as “access” to the digital products and services we buy.

This isn't unlike the brutal fights over land and personhood fought earlier in capitalism's history. This keeps happening because capitalism is a political governance system.

https://misaligned.markets/21st-century-property-rights-conflicts/

#righttorepair #DRM #enclosure #enshittification #tech #bigtech

zirk.us
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago

RE: @pluralistic@mamot.fr

@pluralistic@mamot.fr the “revealed preference” of capitalists is that they hate markets. Political economy starts to make more sense when you cleave markets from capitalism and understand that capitalism is a gameable governance structure that supervenes on markets.

When we allow capitalists to intentionally conflate capitalism and markets, they're able to use the merits of markets to justify this enshittified billionaire oligarchy.

mamot.fr

Cory Doctorow: "Long thread/3" - Mamot - Le Mastodon de La Quadrature du Net

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago

(1/12) The 'AI bubble' is a political economy story I've spent over 20k words unraveling. LLMs aren't just a technology; they're a mirror of the same delusions that drive market fundamentalism: a naive understanding of innovation, deference to capital, and the denigration of human labor.

Our debates are implicitly about all of these and more. A thread 🧵:

https://misaligned.markets/tag/ai/

#AI #LLMs #tech #AIbubble #bigtech #poliecon

Misaligned Markets

AI - Misaligned Markets

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@mattsheffield@mastodon.social This is such a good insight. It’s one that pops up in a lot too, if I’m not misunderstanding it. Naïve epistemologies like “scientism” can end up not understanding the integrated relationship between perception and the mind, even though we tend to separate these. In other fields something similar happens where formal models end up replacing the complexity of the underlying reality being modeled. Noticing this is what got me interested in philosophy.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago

RE: @pluralistic@mamot.fr

@pluralistic@mamot.fr wrote a great post on the AI bubble, and this is a standout section.

As critical as I've been about the tech in my blog posts, I've tried to make space for people who have/will find useful, scoped applications.

Doesn't make any of this worth it. Also, this way of financing creates terrible path-dependencies.

But our goal, as I see it now, is to educate and steer society towards better use cases after the bubble, to prevent Big Tech from reasserting their agenda.

mamot.fr
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 2mo ago
Replying to
@alexanderbird@mstdn.ca AI is a set of different technologies. The best way of talking about it is by pointing to which one specifically is relevant to a conversation.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(6/8) One way that capitalists game the market is by encoding property rights and other legal entitlements in a way that benefit them asymmetrically. Employees as contractors, CDOs built on AAA tranches from subprime mortgages. The fact that capitalists get to choose what inputs are fed to the “computer” absolutely kills the notion that markets are naively optimizing for distribution or efficiency! https://misaligned.markets/one-year-of-misaligned-markets/#capitalist-serialization
Reflecting on one year of Misaligned Markets!
Misaligned Markets

Reflecting on one year of Misaligned Markets!

Misaligned Markets turns one year old. I reflect on the year and what comes next.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(8/8) When capitalists build interfaces they often result in what I refer to as enforceable asymmetries of action. These are states in which the rules, as followed, lead to undesirable outcomes for a counterparty. When your DNS gets hijacked and your browser routes you to “evulhaxxor.website,” the computer was just following the rules. Tough luck. But markets don't have to be this way, which is why I'm writing about this! https://misaligned.markets/gaming-the-system/
The geometry of rules (or how to "game the system")
Misaligned Markets

The geometry of rules (or how to "game the system")

The way players cheese games reveals how markets, networks, and other systems are exploited.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@alxndr @nyhan @annaecook The people who have this fear are basically trying to organize labor around the illusion that AI is valuable by enclosing annotation, infrastructure, and models. They’re the insufferable startup bros who can’t stop talking about Claude Code. Idk if they really believe in it, but they definitely have to act like they do in order to pitch their startups solving some niche problem for a negative bajillion dollars.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 19mo ago
Replying to
@Christo_459@mastodon.me.uk @nazgul@infosec.exchange Probably a narcissist, him and Trump both. Everything he says is projection and designed to inflate his own ego. Became really obvious to me after the Thailand diver incident.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 6mo ago
Replying to
@bigiain@aus.social @Daojoan@mastodon.social This is a post about everything that shareholders touch.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(2/8) Where I diverge from market fundamentalists, like Hayek, is that solving for “distribution” is incidental to market capitalism. Profit, not allocation, is the goal. Knowledge is useful insofar as it serves that end. This is the real “AI alignment problem” where the objective function (profit) is misaligned w/ desired outcomes (efficient distribution). Many profitable opportunities deliberately result in suboptimal distribution. https://misaligned.markets/capitalism-ai-alignment/
What do AI alignment fears reveal about market capitalism?
Misaligned Markets

What do AI alignment fears reveal about market capitalism?

Capitalism's misincentives won't create Skynet but resemble optimization problems AI programmers face.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(7/8) Markets should be seen as interfaces: a boundary between the constructed reality of capitalist inputs (rents, property, entitlements) and the physical world. Just as a digital interface, like a browser, controls what you see and can do over network states, the goal of a profit-maximizing capitalist is to build an interface that routes to slices of reality that function in their favor. https://misaligned.markets/gaming-the-system/
The geometry of rules (or how to "game the system")
Misaligned Markets

The geometry of rules (or how to "game the system")

The way players cheese games reveals how markets, networks, and other systems are exploited.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@ralph @smeg was one of my favorite recent talks on LLMs, validated my understanding and own reading on the topic.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@xankarn@mastodon.online @xankarn@mastodon.online Adam Smith their supposed hero interrogated capitalism too, even if they find most of his work agreeable.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@Natasha_Jay Get out of my head.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 17mo ago
Replying to
@aj I would do this (was originally self hosting my blog) but between the services on my own network and everything else I have going on it’d be a lot of work for me to manage my own Mastodon instance. It might be a long term goal for me though, as I want to build a community around my project Misaligned Markets.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 19mo ago
Replying to
@NikitaTarsov@rollenspiel.social @mapto@masto.bg @wonka@chaos.social @Christo_459@mastodon.me.uk @nazgul@infosec.exchange I think I understand. His playbook's similar for other companies. Neuralink was headed by Max Hodak who worked at Duke under Miguel Nicolelis. Much of Nuralink's experiments are duplicates of the work at the Duke lab (Nicolelis had monkeys at Duke controlling a robot in Kyoto in 2008). In so far as Nuralink is doing something "novel" it's just packaging a bunch of best practices together (if that). Example from Duke: https://today.duke.edu/2014/10/nicolelis
Duke Today

Mind Over Matter | Duke Today

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 19mo ago
Replying to
@ThePolishDispatch@mstdn.social @nazgul@infosec.exchange Musk actually has taken advantage of another kind of exploit. Trust. Every year at his fancy company announcements he gets on stage and promises something; it never comes, and then he just does it again next year. The insane thing to me is that it's one thing to do this with individuals he does it to companies too. Pepsi still doesn't have all the Tesla Semis they were promised. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-semi-trucks-short-supply-pepsico-its-rivals-use-competing-ev-big-rigs-2024-04-19/
reuters.com
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 20mo ago
Replying to
@shanselman@hachyderm.io Not only is he not those things, he might very well be a chaos gremlin when it comes to complex systems (among other things) if this story from his second biography is to be believed. He apparently physically ripped out primary Twitter servers in an unplanned migration and paid random people off the street to move them. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/elon-musk-moved-twitter-servers-himself-in-the-night-new-biography-details-his-maniacal-sense-of-urgency.html
Elon Musk moving servers himself shows his 'maniacal sense of urgency' at X, formerly Twitter
CNBC

Elon Musk moving servers himself shows his 'maniacal sense of urgency' at X, formerly Twitter

Elon Musk's most valuable lieutenants at Tesla and SpaceX had learned ways to deflect his bad ideas and drip-feed him unwelcome information, but the legacy employees at X, formerly Twitter, didn't know how to handle him.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(3/8) Naive market fundamentalists miss a key detail: distributed knowledge isn't just about the game (competition), but the rules of the game. You can't escape this with a “small state.” The minute you grant a patent, you've interfered with the free market and created an attack surface that undermines all future competition. This is why capitalism is inherently political; it's a governance structure that imposes values onto markets. https://misaligned.markets/tension-market-capitalism/
The tension at the heart of market capitalism
Misaligned Markets

The tension at the heart of market capitalism

Capitalism promises competition, but its biggest winners avoid it. Separating markets from capitalism explains this paradox.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(4/8) Computers actually are a good analogy for market capitalism. Not because markets “compute” how to allocate resources but because they are a distributed system (like a computer network) whose implicit and explicit rules affect throughput and user experience. Price as a signal indicates where there are opportunities, but cannot inherently show what knowledge is being acted on. Very often it has nothing to do with “allocative efficiency.” https://misaligned.markets/capitalism-as-a-stack/
Capitalism runs like a computer (and it's being hacked)
Misaligned Markets

Capitalism runs like a computer (and it's being hacked)

Like computer networks, market capitalism rewards actors that exploit gaps created by system and user behavior.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
(5/8) Digital goods are the perfect illustration. Digital assets are non-rivalrous; one person's use doesn't deplete another's, and the marginal cost of production is near zero. Yet, the tech industry has produced the most profitable companies in history. Why? Because they've found ways to capture value that have nothing to do with distribution. https://misaligned.markets/21st-century-property-rights-conflicts/
Modern conflicts over property rights and commodification
Misaligned Markets

Modern conflicts over property rights and commodification

Issues like right to repair and privacy are extensions of age-old battles over property rights, which are inherent to capitalism.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 20mo ago
Replying to
@evacide Media reporting on Musk in general has just been poor. He has always been given freedom to set the narrative on what it is that he's doing. This is just a futher extension of that. It's just all the more absurd because it's plain to see he has massive conflicts of interest and is intently motivated on exploiting them. He's not really even hiding it.
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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@nash Thank you for doing your part to make a more goblin filled internet.
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Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago

RE: @pluralistic@mamot.fr

I wrote a thread about this! Markets under capitalism are interfaces where capitalists get to control the inputs.

Should we keep using the computer metaphor?

Maybe. So long as we recognize this has less to do with computation and more to do with rules.

@MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us

mamot.fr

Cory Doctorow: "Long thread/2" - Mamot - Le Mastodon de La Quadrature du Net

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Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 7mo ago
Replying to on ecoevo.social
@benlockwood@ecoevo.social market economies are a wicked problem politicians treat as an engineering problem. Until that changes any runaway consequences will remain unaddressed.
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Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@simon_brooke@mastodon.scot Markets have existed as a medium of exchange well before capitalism and have enabled mutual exchange, even among participants with different levels of wealth. It's in markets governed by unnatural wealth-gettting (or chrematistics in Aristotle's language) do we begin to see this perversion by market makers at the expense of participants. That's not to say markets are perfect, but like any resource they're only as good as they're governed. https://misaligned.markets/greed-is-not-selfishness/
Greed is not selfishness
Misaligned Markets

Greed is not selfishness

Greed is not just a personal vice but something far more dangerous.

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Open post
Mike @ Misaligned Markets @MidniteMikeWrites@zirk.us
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@bencurthoys@mastodon.social @pluralistic@mamot.fr Market capitalism is a metastable system whose governance structure (capitalism) creates affordances that allow market actors to avoid competition. Some are intentional (patents) others emerge from gaming the rules. https://zirk.us/@MidniteMikeWrites/114808262786519399
zirk.us
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