I sort of had a neutral opinion of Dario Amodei until I started listening to a recent interview. Ed Zitron is so right, clearly nobody is doing the most basic math here.
Dario says Anthropomorphic is growing 10x (or more!) every year. So... In 2-3 years, they would have more revenue than any other company in the world. And in another year would exceed the GDP of the USA. But the revenue has to come from somewhere. Dario says that Claude Code has gone from a 5-10% efficiency improvement for coding at launch to 15-20% now. But his best developers use it for all their work, never writing code by hand. In the USA, the mean software dev makes $138k. You can feasibly spend that much on tokens. And Dario's entire justification for that coding efficiency improvement seems to be vibes and the simple logic that his people are using Claude and shipping new versions of Claude that people are paying ever more for so its greatness must be the reason for the revenue growth.
I don't really know what to call this. Delusional? Headass? A CEO should be able to articulate a good financial argument for buying their product but Dario's seems to be vibes and circular reasoning.