Replying to
@zbrown@floss.social @DarcMoughty@infosec.exchange @paige@masto.canadiancivil.com a friend sent me what can be seen as a variant problem:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb%27s_problem
#NewcombsProblem
It depends upon a predictor, and has lots of interesting related analysis.
In his 1969 article, #Nozick noted that "To almost everyone, it is perfectly clear and obvious what should be done. The difficulty is that these people seem to divide almost evenly on the problem, with large numbers thinking that the opposing half is just being silly."