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Asymco

@asymco@mastodon.social
mastodon 4.8.0-nightly.2026-10-06
  • Open on mastodon.social

Asymmetric Competition.

7970 Followers
229 Following
49 Posts
Joined November 07, 2022
Blog:
http://asymco.com
Podcast on Supercast:
https://asymetric.supercast.com/
Podcast on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/is/podcast/asymetric/id1565557473
Micromobility:
https://micromobility.io
Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2w ago
The average new car costs $50k. The median US household income is $85k. Financial guidelines suggest spending no more than 10% of gross income on monthly vehicle costs (20% down, 4yr loan). Therefore the required income for buying a median new car requires annual income of $175k. Less than 20% of households meet average new car affordability guidance.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Periodic reminder that there are about 3000 billionaires in the world (not 3). 62 million individuals have net worth over $1 million 2.5 million over $10 million 107k over $100 million 3000 over $1 billion 200 over $10 billion 15 over $100 billion
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Google’s free cash flow will hit zero next year

https://asymco.com/2026/05/09/googles-free-cash-flow-will-hit-zero-next-year/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

asymco.com
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 3mo ago
"GoPro warned this month that it might go out of business after memory costs shot up between 80% and 115% at the end of the first quarter. And shares of speaker maker Sonos are down 23% this year as memory prices pressure margins." I remember when GoPro and Sonos were paraded as fantastic innovations that Apple could not hope to achieve.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Why all-in and why all are in https://asymco.com/2026/07/17/why-all-in-and-why-all-are-in/
Why all-in and why all are in
Asymco

Why all-in and why all are in

Take all my money, please. The graph above shows that Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle decided to transfer their shareholders’ wealth to the shareholders of Nvidia, Micron, Broadc…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Apple shares reached an all time high today.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
After $GOOG and $TSLA reported earnings yesterday the stocks are collapsing. $GOOG down 7% to a P/E of 16 and $TSLA down 14% to a P/E of 300. 😱
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Replying to
@briankrebs@infosec.exchange The iPhone (and most Apple products) is still a dollar a day. Check my posts on the matter.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @tchambers@indieweb.social
Apple's Vision Products Group is expanding, not contracting. https://asymco.com/2026/04/30/the-vision-products-group-expanding/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social
The Vision Products Group Expanding
Asymco

The Vision Products Group Expanding

“Gurman’s 2025 dissolution claim clashes with 2026’s active Vision Products Group hiring spree.”

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
No one admits they like or want to buy more AAPL https://asymco.com/2026/07/12/no-one-admits-they-like-or-want-to-buy-more-aapl/
No one admits they like or want to buy more AAPL
Asymco

No one admits they like or want to buy more AAPL

How Apple Became the Most Defensive Stock in the Market The stock hit an all-time high Thursday as investors look for hedges against massive artificial-intelligence investments elsewhere in the mar…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 3mo ago
Counterpoint: Apple to Hit Record Market Shares in Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets; Watch Share Also Set to Grow https://asymco.com/2026/07/02/counterpoint-apple-to-hit-record-market-shares-in-smartphones-laptops-tablets-watch-share-also-set-to-grow/
Counterpoint: Apple to Hit Record Market Shares in Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets; Watch Share Also Set to Grow
Asymco

Counterpoint: Apple to Hit Record Market Shares in Smartphones, Laptops, Tablets; Watch Share Also Set to Grow

While most of the other OEMs are struggling, Apple, with its stable pricing, high margins and strong supply chain control, is in the best position to weather the memory crisis and win market share……

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 3mo ago
Apple destroyed the mid-tier watch market. Now it’s coming for the $200 billion eyewear industry https://asymco.com/2026/07/09/apple-destroyed-the-mid-tier-watch-market-now-its-coming-for-the-200-billion-eyewear-industry/
Apple destroyed the mid-tier watch market. Now it’s coming for the $200 billion eyewear industry
Asymco

Apple destroyed the mid-tier watch market. Now it’s coming for the $200 billion eyewear industry

Hence The Apple Vision Pro Apple plans to disrupt the $200B eyewear market the way it disrupted watches. Swatch fell 28%, Fossil 70%. Smart glasses are targeting late 2027.When Apple launched the A…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet https://asymco.com/2026/04/16/computer-history-museum-interviews-bertrand-serlet/

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet
Asymco

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet

“Bertrand Serlet, a pivotal yet understated architect behind Apple’s OS X, exemplifies the profound impact of tech’s quiet innovators.”

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Replying to
@briankrebs@infosec.exchange https://mastodon.social/@asymco/117003491505033018
mastodon.social

Asymco: "Many years ago (https://asymco.com/2014/07/25/wha…" - Mastodon

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Finally completed this. It required many data sets to compile. Very confident in the accuracy. Yearly resolution, forecast now is much more detailed. Results to be published on asymco.com

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 7mo ago

MacBook Neo is: A18 Pro chip, $599, four colors. A watershed event. First Mac with a mobile processor and the end of the disruptive arc of mobile computing. From Motorola to Intel to Apple silicon M, now personal computing is an accessory to mobile computing. A sharp punctuation point.

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @tchambers@indieweb.social
Apple’s iPhone 17 was the world’s best-selling smartphone in quarter one of 2026. iPhones where first, second, third and sixth most popular phones during the first quarter. https://asymco.com/2026/05/06/iphones-where-first-second-third-and-sixth-most-popular-phones-during-the-first-quarter/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social
iPhones where first, second, third and sixth most popular phones during the first quarter
Asymco

iPhones where first, second, third and sixth most popular phones during the first quarter

In Q1 2026, iPhone 17 dominated with 6% global sales, securing the top three spots, while Samsung’s five models highlighted a record 25% market concentration amid component cost pressures.

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

A little sad that nobody celebrated the 400 millionth Mac sold. Somebody out there is using it right now.

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago

People don’t like wearing things on their faces and don’t trust those who do

Says Neal Stephenson who first coined the term “metaverse” This revelation came soon after Meta canceled the Metaverse. My thought was immediately, will Meta rename itself back to Facebook? We'll get to that soon, but first let's look into Neal Stephenson's mea culpa: When I was working at Magic Leap, and people asked me why I thought that was a good idea, I would ask the rhetorical question:…

https://asymco.com/2026/03/26/people-dont-like-wearing-things-on-their-faces-and-dont-trust-those-who-do/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

asymco.com
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 3mo ago
Why is the most expensive thing you own the dumbest? Could some future Apple TV morph into a data center for the family? https://asymco.com/2026/06/27/why-is-the-most-expensive-thing-you-own-the-dumbest/
Why is the most expensive thing you own the dumbest?
Asymco

Why is the most expensive thing you own the dumbest?

An Office Hours question asked by Lalit, June 9, 2026. Q: Could some future Apple TV morph into a data center for the family? And what about all the talk about Home and AI? I’ve anticipated the Hom…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 2mo ago
Game Over. Remember Consoles? Many PlayStation users are considering a switch to PC after Sony announced the end of physical games on its platforms. https://asymco.com/2026/07/16/game-over-remember-consoles/
Game Over. Remember Consoles?
Asymco

Game Over. Remember Consoles?

Many PlayStation users are considering a switch to PC after Sony announced the end of physical games on its platforms. A reader poll by Push Square, which specializes in PlayStation coverage, has s…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds

Seeing is believing AI is attracting all the attention but one should be careful because if there is one thing about technology is that timing is everything and when attention is concentrated it signals that time is distorted. In a recent interview Apple management was asked about AI, which is perceived as an area where Apple has been struggling. Greg Joswiak replied:

https://asymco.com/2026/04/17/the-inevitability-of-combining-the-digital-and-physical-worlds/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds
Asymco

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds

Seeing is believing AI is attracting all the attention but one should be careful because if there is one thing about technology is that timing is everything and when attention is concentrated it si…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago

The most brilliant move in corporate history?

https://asymco.com/2026/03/10/the-most-brilliant-move-in-corporate-history/

The most brilliant move in corporate history?
Asymco

The most brilliant move in corporate history?

In a bold departure from its Big Tech peers, Apple sidestepped the $650 billion AI infrastructure spending frenzy, a move likened to opting out of purchasing the US Navy annually. While Amazon, Goo…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @tchambers@indieweb.social
Customer satisfaction for Mac was 97%. Half of customers buying an iPad are new to the product. Most of these new customers are in emerging markets. Customer sat for iPad at 98%.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @tchambers@indieweb.social
iPhone vs Android Switching Rates Bitchin' ain't Switching SellCell’s Smartphone Loyalty Survey 2026 shows iPhone and Android loyalty at record highs, but Android users still switch more. Key findings iPhone loyalty stands at 96.4%, up from 91.9% in 2021 iPhone switching stands at 3.6% Android loyalty stands at 86.4%, with switching at 13.6% Android users are nearly four times more likely to switch than iPhone users… https://asymco.com/2026/04/18/iphone-vs-android-switching-rates/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social
iPhone vs Android Switching Rates
Asymco

iPhone vs Android Switching Rates

iPhone users boast nearly quadruple the loyalty of Android counterparts, with actual annual switching rates favoring Apple slightly, despite inflated survey intentions.

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @flargh@mastodon.social
What’s the consensus on $AAPL? Buy:Sell is 15:1 The analyst consensus price target sits at $297.46, with 31 Buy ratings against just 2 Sell ratings across 48 analysts. Both Citi and Morgan Stanley sit above consensus at $315, signaling above-average conviction. Apple stock is up 39% over the past year, so the transition arrives with the stock already reflecting significant strength. Citi and Morgan Stanley both maintained Buy/Overweight ratings with $315 price targets… https://asymco.com/2026/04/22/whats-the-consensus-on-aapl/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social
What’s the consensus on $AAPL?
Asymco

What’s the consensus on $AAPL?

Apple’s strong analyst backing with a 15:1 Buy:Sell ratio and $315 target contrasts its 39% year-to-date rise, overlooking potential future growth. NB bulletin lines (quip / first NB line / c…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet

Pay attention to the quiet ones Interviewed by Hansen Hsu on 2023-09-20 in Mountain View

https://asymco.com/2026/04/16/computer-history-museum-interviews-bertrand-serlet/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet
Asymco

Computer History Museum interviews Bertrand Serlet

“Bertrand Serlet, a pivotal yet understated architect behind Apple’s OS X, exemplifies the profound impact of tech’s quiet innovators.”

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Bank of America raises Apple price target to $325 from $320

Q2 forecast update BofA raised the firm’s price target on Apple to $325 from $320 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares ahead of fiscal Q2 earnings due after market close on Thursday, April 30. The firm, which sees upside to Street estimates given continued strong sales of iPhone and double-digit growth in Services revenue, forecasts Q2 revenue and EPS of $113B and $2.00, respectively.

https://asymco.com/2026/04/17/bank-of-america-raises-apple-price-target-to-325-from-320/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

Bank of America raises Apple price target to $325 from $320
Asymco

Bank of America raises Apple price target to $325 from $320

BofA slightly ups Apple’s price target to $325, forecasting $113B revenue and $2.00 EPS for Q2, driven by strong iPhone sales and Services growth, slightly above my estimates of $110B and $2.…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago

The Motley Fool asks: Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

Not reading this article is probably a wise decision. Shares could perform in line with the S&P 500's long-term average Investors can follow a straightforward exercise to try and figure out where Apple's stock price will be in late March 2031. It's important to consider both the valuation and profit gains. We just released a brand-new report with the full story and the company’s name.

https://asymco.com/2026/04/06/the-motley-fool-asks-where-will-apple-stock-be-in-5-years/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

The Motley Fool asks: Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?
Asymco

The Motley Fool asks: Where Will Apple Stock Be in 5 Years?

Not reading this article is probably a wise decision. Shares could perform in line with the S&P 500’s long-term averageInvestors can follow a straightforward exercise to try and figure ou…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026

Revenues and growth rates for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, plus Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Expense, Other Income and Expense, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a comparison to CFO guidance. Kevan Parekh, Apple CFO: As we move ahead into March, I would like to review our outlook, […]. We expect our March total company revenue to grow by 13% to 16% year over year, which comprehends our best…

https://asymco.com/2026/04/16/estimates-for-apples-march-quarter-2026/?utm_source=mastodon&utm_medium=jetpack_social

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026
Asymco

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026

Revenues and growth rates for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, plus Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Expense, Other Income and Expense, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a com…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Boosted by @tchambers@indieweb.social
Gartner adds their Mac Q1 estimate to the pile https://asymco.com/2026/04/11/gartner-adds-their-mac-q1-estimate-to-the-pile/
Gartner adds their Mac Q1 estimate to the pile
Asymco

Gartner adds their Mac Q1 estimate to the pile

In Q1 2026, Apple’s Mac sales surged impressively by 10.7% to 12.7% year-over-year, driven by the MacBook Neo’s appeal, securing a 10.6% global market share and maintaining fourth place…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
30% growth in China! For this to be tied to 3.3% growth globally would imply significant declines elsewhere. I struggle to see how this adds up.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago

Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come https://asymco.com/2026/03/22/forget-streetview-immersion-hints-at-whats-to-come/

Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come
Asymco

Forget Streetview, Immersion hints at what’s to come

“Waddle transforms visionOS into a portal of immersive exploration, where experiencing surpasses explaining.”

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds https://asymco.com/2026/04/17/the-inevitability-of-combining-the-digital-and-physical-worlds/

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds
Asymco

The Inevitability of Combining the Digital and Physical Worlds

Seeing is believing AI is attracting all the attention but one should be careful because if there is one thing about technology is that timing is everything and when attention is concentrated it si…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
I’ve seen several market reports which estimate that iPhone shipments grew around 3% to 6% in the quarter. When I plug in, say, IDC’s iPhones number into my model, and assume quite aggressive growth on the other categories (including Services) I get a y/y revenue growth of 11%. This is far below Kevan’s January’s guidance quoted above (13% to 16%).
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago
Replying to
@djstarr @hugg I spent many years later using the X Window System. It was fantastic but still somehow switched to a local computing environment.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
Are IDC, Gartner, et. al. signaling a huge miss? I need to point out that in the preceding December quarter the iPhone grew revenues at 23%! In order for Apple to hit its targets,
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
Moreover, IDC commentary on Apple is Apple secured second place, driven by the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series, which saw significant growth in China of over 30%. This led to a 3.3% year-over-year increase in global sales for Q1. Although demand remains robust, supply disruptions and a reduction in channel support in some key markets have hindered growth..
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@ebbi@mastodon.social That’s the one I would get.
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Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026 https://asymco.com/2026/04/16/estimates-for-apples-march-quarter-2026/

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026
Asymco

Estimates for Apple’s March Quarter 2026

Revenues and growth rates for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, plus Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Expense, Other Income and Expense, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a com…

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
See link below for the full https://Asymco.com article. Asymco One subscribers also get access to growth rate for revenues for iPhone, Mac, iPad, Services, Wearables, Net Sales, Gross Margin, Operating Exp., OIE, Tax Rate, Net Income, Share Count and EPS with a comparison to CFO guidance. → https://asymco.com/2026/04/16/estimates-for-apples-march-quarter-2026/
Asymco
Asymco

Asymco

Asymmetric Intelligence

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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago
Replying to
@bonno I assume you are referring to the customers as “the best”. I don’t know what 1.4 billion people think about themselves (and I’m impressed that you do) but I can tell you what developers and Google think is best about them. They hold 80% of the net worth and income in the world. That amounts to hundreds of trillions, of which $5 trillion are spent through Apple devices every year. The non-Apple customers may be better on some measures but economic activity is not one of them.
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
Kevan Parekh, Apple CFO, said during the last analyst call:
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Open post
Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
I’d also point out that when Kevan Parekh made his forecast, in late January, a full month was already on the books for Apple. Visibility into the next month would have been relatively good as orders from the channel are partly foreseeable. For a change from implying nearly 20% growth in sales/14% in units one third of the way in, to IDC’s 3% in units for the whole quarter would imply a collapse in demand into February and March. We’re talking double digit decline in order volumes.
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Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago
Replying to
@hugg @djstarr I grew up with VT-100 (DEC) as my terminal. Would also use a PC to dial in at 1200 baud and use a VT-100 emulator. As nice as that was, I still moved to a personal computing environment exclusively.
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Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 6mo ago
Replying to
@tedherman I don’t watch reviews as a matter of principle. Is there a reason why I should watch this one?
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Asymco @asymco@mastodon.social
· 5mo ago
Replying to
@ebbi@mastodon.social That's a huge discount. Not seeing this in US (Amazon discount is about USD 100 to 150 for refurbished). Why is this?
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