mastodon 4.7.3𝗙𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿: FutureClimate IQ | I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis
I am a huge fan of ephemeral social media, so my posts delete after 30 days. Content that I want around longer will be on my blog.
This iconic aerial photo over Soweto was taken 32 years ago today. Everyone seen here able to vote for the first time.
This was the day when South Africa had its first democratic election, which resulted in Nelson Mandela becoming president, 4 years after his release from prison.
NEW from C3S:
June was 1.39°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average for the month.
The average global temperature for the last 12 months (July 2025 to June 2026) was 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Details: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2026
The following countries have instituted some form of work-from-home in response to the oil shortage:
🇰🇭 Cambodia
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇮🇩 Indonesia
🇰🇷 South Korea
🇲🇾 Malaysia
🇲🇭 Marshall Islands
🇲🇲 Myanmar
🇵🇰 Pakistan
🇵🇪 Peru
🇵🇭 Philippines
🇱🇰 Sri Lanka
🇹🇭 Thailand
🇻🇳 Vietnam
Why is this not done everywhere permanently to cut emissions!?
Data: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/2026-energy-crisis-policy-response-tracker
ICYMI
Europe as we are about to cross 1.5°C permanently.
Reminder of this from the IPCC in 2023:
“Risks are increasing with every increment of warming. High risks are now assessed to occur at lower global warming levels.”
Echoing a global sentiment:
“I can think of only one thing more satiric than the only country on Earth that still routinely makes fun of soccer, fixing the world’s biggest soccer tournament in their own favour.
That would be fixing it and losing anyway.”
😅
Reminder from Hansen et al (April 2026)
“We infer that 2026 is likely to be the warmest year in the period of instrumental data, based on a physics-based approach with identifiable assumptions. This approach may help us learn something in 2026 about the mechanisms of climate change.”
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/2026GlobalTemperature.2026.04.30.pdf
Disinformation allies:
“The United States and Russia, two state actors spreading climate disinformation in Europe.”
“The 2026 global SST surpasses the 2024 global SST by mid-June; thus, given the lag, 2024 might remain warmer than 2026 in July, but the final five months of the year should have 2026 as warmer than
2024. We expect the gap in the stretch run (November, December) to be so large as to (unfortunately) make 2026 the hottest year - until 2027, which will be even hotter.”—Hansen et al
Source: https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2026/BewareMediaHype.2026.07.23.pdf
Climate Progress Top 10:
1. Estonia
2. Luxembourg
3. United Kingdom
4. Finland
5. Netherlands
6. Germany
7. France
8. Norway
9. Sweden
10. Austria
Of course the US is slipping, intent on staying the greatest atmospheric polluter of all time.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jul/08/climate-change-crisis-europe-us
This is not normal.
“Strong sea surface temperature anomalies were observed in the western, northeastern, and southeastern tropical Pacific in spring 2026, forming a rare and extreme annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific over the past 40 years.”
“Extreme spring Pacific annular warming elevates the 2026/27 El Niño” https://spj.science.org/doi/epdf/10.34133/olar.0153
With climate chaos continuing to spread globally, as we pass through 1.5°C of heating, the root cause of the problem, the continued extraction and use of fossil fuels, is simply not being addressed.
Case in point
“The last time the Netherlands hit a Level 2 water shortage was in 2022. If the drought continues, the assessment could be elevated to a Level 3, which is considered a national crisis. That last happened in 2003.”
https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/07/the-netherlands-is-officially-in-a-water-shortage/
WTF check this from the president of the country that has produced more atmospheric pollution than any other on earth, which is directly linked to causing the conditions that make wild fires more likely and more intense.
Everyone should be imposing tariffs on the US!
https://www.ft.com/content/fa4e24db-9324-47e2-8512-a581ca9c1aba?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Most of the world's car owners: Petrol & Diesel price shocks 😱
Norway: 🤷🏻
For the most part, we are completely & utterly unprepared for ~1.5ºC of heating. We underestimate the high risks at this level of heating.
We are certain, given our current non-emergency approach to curbing fossil fuel burning, that 2ºC will be passed. What happens then?
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2026/jul/11/uk-pupils-struggle-extreme-heat-schools-classrooms
Ummm
😳
"Two strong cold fronts swept through the Cape this past weekend, bringing widespread heavy rain and flooding to multiple areas. Many regions recorded more than 100 mm over the 72-hour period."
Infrastructure can't cope with an atmosphere that is holding more water. This at ~1.5ºC of heating.
Image credits: https://voxweather.co.za
The IEA estimates "that three days of remote work each week, for those whose jobs allow it, could trim national oil consumption by between 2 and 6 percent."
We have the solutions we just need to use them!
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/iran-war-energy-crisis-remote-work
This is likely the most concerning bit of data from the March C3S Climate Bulletin.
The ocean baseline is very warm as we head into this next El Niño 😳
March Bulletin: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-march-2026
As we take stock of the destruction caused by this week's extreme weather events in the Western Cape it is time to bring the adaptation conversation to centre stage.
This is what needs to be done: https://peterdutoit.com/western-cape-storms-the-urgent-need-for-climate-adaptation/
Using RONI, the most extreme El Niño recorded in the last 76 years was in 1982/83 where the anomaly peaked at 2.5°C
If the current forecast holds then the coming event will top that!
The kicker: 1982/83 global temps were ~0.47°C above preindustrial. Current 12-month mean 1.42°C!
Brace for impact!
The new FOA/WMO report Extreme Heat and Agriculture highlights the profound risk to global food supplies as we continue to heat.
Adaptation is critical, but has hard physical limits. As are result we MUST slam the brakes on emissions to avoid multiple food basket failures!
Spare a thought for the vulnerable communities in our area.
This event looks like it is going to be dumping a *lot* of water 😳
“During the summer of 2025, which was the hottest on record and spanned the period from June through September, 9,203 people in Tokyo were transported to hospitals due to heatstroke. This figure was 2.7 times higher than in 2021 and has continued to increase year by year.”
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20260501/p2a/00m/0na/007000c
NEW IRI ENSO forecast (Apr 20)
“Warmer waters now dominate much of the subsurface, and their eastward expansion has pushed the Niño 1+2 index up to +1.8 °C (week centered on 15 April 2026), with Niño 3 at +0.6 °C and Niño 4 at +0.9 °C. Together, these signals point to rapidly evolving ENSO conditions favoring a swift onset of El Niño.
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
As we sail through 1.5°C of global heating, +40°C days are becoming more frequent in Japan requiring new terminology
IPCC: One of the 3 places at higher risk in the near term from an impacts of global heating are places that are already near human and animal thermal limits
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/04/17/japan/japan-severely-hot-day/
"The European Union's greenhouse gas emissions fell a further 3% between 2023 and 2024, bringing the EU’s total emission reductions to 40% below 1990 levels"
🚨 Eastern Pacific SSTs are unusually hot for April, providing a favourable background for El Niño to develop rapidly if atmospheric coupling continues.
As the projected strong to very strong El Niño begins to load - a look at the typical (but not guaranteed) impacts on global rainfall patterns.
In South Africa the very strong 2015/16 event influenced the Cape Town “Day Zero” scare in 2017.
Graphic: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/
From the frontlines of the #ClimateCrisis
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp9ld3p324jo
This tragic story highlights the need for a personal Resilience Plan.
- Understand the risks where you live.
- Have a plan to mitigate against those.
Here is something I shared for our area: https://peterdutoit.com/are-you-fire-ready/
US politicians have been captured by Big Oil
NEW from C3S:
"April 2026 was 1.43°C above the estimated 1850-1900 average used to define the pre-industrial level."
The 12-month running mean is now 1.42ºC and likely the bottom of the La Niña. Let us see what happens in May.
Climate Bulletin here: https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-april-2026
