Here’s the S&P 500 (daily close) with the key COVID and policy events marked; the numbered key is below the chart. Event key: Dec 31 – China reports the Wuhan pneumonia cluster to the WHO Jan 21 – First confirmed US case (Washington state) Jan 23 – Wuhan locked down Jan 30 – WHO declares […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 3w ago

Tuesday assorted links https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/tuesday-assorted-links-586.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=tuesday-assorted-links-586 #Economics #Culture #Links

Marginal REVOLUTION

Tuesday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. Easy to bioengineer a very dangerous virus? 2. The astrophysicists are getting antsy too. Princeton is also getting nervous. If nothing else, these are huge PR own goals. The guy is a Mill scholars, can you imagine J.S. Mill tweeting that way? 3. New David Brooks podcast. 4. One Chinese view of AI risk. […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

METR, EA, and others being attacked https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/metr-ea-and-others-being-attacked.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=metr-ea-and-others-being-attacked #Economics #Culture #CurrentEvents

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Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Internet diffusion and religious decline? https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/internet-diffusion-and-religious-decline.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=internet-diffusion-and-religious-decline #Economics #Religion #Technology

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Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Saturday assorted links https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/saturday-assorted-links-579.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-579 #Economics #Culture #Links

Marginal REVOLUTION

Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. Critique of Villaroel on UAPs. 2. Bergen County (Korean) fact of the day. 3. AIs cracking superforecasting. 4. Gregor Benko, RIP (NYT). 5. Joshua Saxe on the increase in cyber risk. 6. Lichtenstein political infighting heats up (FT). 7. Risk, the biggie. And on the Suwalki gap.

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

The polity that is Singapore https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/the-polity-that-is-singapore-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-polity-that-is-singapore-2 #Economics #Politics #Asia

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Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Empathy gaps https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/empathy-gaps.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=empathy-gaps #Philosophy #Psychology #Culture

Marginal REVOLUTION

Empathy gaps - Marginal REVOLUTION

I observed, for example, that when I got an invitation to travel to give a talk in a different time zone, it mattered what time zone I was in when I got the invitation. if well rested, in my home time zone, I would think, No big deal, about making a long trip and would […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Further results on AI and labor market reallocation https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/further-results-on-ai-and-labor-market-reallocation.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=further-results-on-ai-and-labor-market-reallocation #AI #Economics #Labor

Marginal REVOLUTION

Further results on AI and labor market reallocation - Marginal REVOLUTION

This paper documents how artificial intelligence has affected stocks and flows in the U.S. labor market. Combining CPS and JOLTS data with AI exposure and adoption measures from OpenAI and Lightcast, respectively, we construct labor force stocks, worker flows, and market tightness by AI exposure and adoption. Since the introduction of LLMs, workers with high […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models? https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/banning-self-recursive-improvement-in-ai-models.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=banning-self-recursive-improvement-in-ai-models #AI #Technology #Ethics

Marginal REVOLUTION

Banning self-recursive improvement in AI models? - Marginal REVOLUTION

Some people are suggesting this, including Ezra Klein. I do not understand how it is supposed to work. Put aside the issue of foregone innovations, let us say I seek to access an AI from overseas. Am I allowed to visit their website? So many sites have AI behind them, including Chinese open source AI. […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

The economics of late grandmotherhood https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/the-economics-of-late-grandmotherhood.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-economics-of-late-grandmotherhood #Economics #Family #Demographics

Marginal REVOLUTION

The economics of late grandmotherhood - Marginal REVOLUTION

We show how fertility delays compound across generations to raise age at first grandmotherhood. Under the 1960 first-birth schedule median grandmotherhood came at 44. Under the 2024 schedule it is 57, cutting the healthy years with grandchildren from 28 to 15. Longer life does not make up the loss of years when the grandmother is […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

The Price of Intelligence is Falling Rapidly https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/the-price-of-intelligence-is-falling.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-price-of-intelligence-is-falling #AI #Economics #Science

Marginal REVOLUTION

The Price of Intelligence is Falling Rapidly - Marginal REVOLUTION

An amazing Epoch AI report from Emberson and Roodman: Over the past three years, the cost of a given level of AI performance has fallen an average of some 47% per quarter. That is a 13-fold drop every year – a faster rate than any other transformative technology in history. To give an example, OpenAI […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 2w ago

Optimal liability for offensive and defensive AI https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/optimal-liability-for-offensive-and-defensive-ai.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=optimal-liability-for-offensive-and-defensive-ai #AI #Law #Tech

Marginal REVOLUTION

Optimal liability for offensive and defensive AI - Marginal REVOLUTION

How much liability should AI providers bear when their services enable both attack and defence? Liability can improve welfare while increasing harm. Providers sell a common input to productive users, attackers and defenders. Within a defended contest, a higher common price reduces effort without changing attack success or attacker profits, saving resources and improving the […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 1w ago

Earth fact of the day https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/earth-fact-of-the-day-2.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=earth-fact-of-the-day-2 #Science #Earth #Data

Marginal REVOLUTION

Earth fact of the day - Marginal REVOLUTION

An average of 72 percent of respondents said they felt curious, happy or excited about A.I., compared with 41 percent who felt worried, sad or angry.’@nytimes‘s Damien Cave uses @Gallup data to remind us the rest of the world digs AI. It is 93 percent positive from China. That is from Nick Gillespie. Snap out of it […]

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 1w ago

Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/peter-thiel-on-ai-and-tech-stagnation.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=peter-thiel-on-ai-and-tech-stagnation #AI #Tech #Economics

Marginal REVOLUTION

Peter Thiel on AI and tech stagnation and democracy - Marginal REVOLUTION

Lots of fresh material…

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 1w ago

Saturday assorted links https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/saturday-assorted-links-580.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saturday-assorted-links-580 #Economics #Culture #Links

Marginal REVOLUTION

Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION

1. One way to use screens less, will it catch on? 2. Roon as cultural critic. 3. The Greenland deal sounds pretty good for America? 4. The cultures that are New England? 5. Yet newer results on AI-driven labor demand. 6. Ayn Rand as movie extra.

Marginal Revolution @marginal_revolution@robot.villas

· 1w ago

Mighty Sparrow, RIP https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/09/mighty-sparrow-rip.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mighty-sparrow-rip #Music #Obituary #Culture

Marginal REVOLUTION

Mighty Sparrow, RIP - Marginal REVOLUTION

Here is the NYT obituary.