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Joe C

@Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
mastodon 4.6.8
  • Open on mastodonapp.uk

Canadian living in the UK. This account is where I cover UK, European, and Asia-Pacific elections.

119 Followers
2 Following
50 Posts
Joined March 18, 2023
Social Profile:
https://mastodon.world/@Joe_C_London
Canadian & US Elections:
https://mstdn.ca/@Joe_C_London
Open post
Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

The first mayoral race has been declared, and it is a Green gain from Labour in #Hackney.

Caroline Woodley got nearly 60% of the vote here 4 years ago. Now, Zoë Garbett has defeated her on a collosal swing.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Polls have closed in Hungary's general election. RTL, the main commercial broadcaster, is predicting that TISZA will win 135 seats, with FIDESZ reduced to 63. If that's borne out in the results, then Viktor Orbán's time in power is about to come to an end. #HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Just waiting on the regional votes in Highlands and Islands, and then the #ScottishParliament results will be complete.

#ukpoli #Election2026

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

This is the closest we are going to get to final results in the #LocalElections this weekend.

There is still one ward outstanding: Glebe Farm and Tile Cross (Birmingham), which had two Labour councillors before the election, has gone to several recounts, and will not declare until Monday.

#ukpoli #Election2026

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Birmingham is holding up a mirror to the country as a whole, its new five-party system on full display.

It will certainly take some time for an administration to be formed here. Time that Birmingham simply doesn't have right now.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

If you've ever wondered how the SNP is able to come close to a majority with such a small vote share, this will help explain it.

The SNP has done about 11 points better in the constituency vote than in the region vote. That helps the SNP win, by my reckoning, about 10 seats that they otherwise wouldn't.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
I'm a bit surprised with my home borough. I was half-expecting Reform to do much better here than they did. Though I now better understand why I saw no campaigning here whatsoever. #ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
This is why I'm able to call this election. This election was always going to be won or lost in the constituencies. And Tisza has dominated the constituencies. They have already clinched 81 constituencies, and are leading in 14 more. #HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 4mo ago

If a general election were held today, there would be a 9-in-10 chance that Reform could take #Makerfield, where Andy Burnham seeks to stand in a by-election.

But that assumes a generic Labour candidate. Name recognition can give Burnham a boost. But that's still a large deficit to make up.

#ukpoli #LabourLeadership

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Open post
Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Just finished refreshing the national polling data following the local election results.

On current polling, there's no chance that Reform would be able to get a majority on their own, and only a one in three chance that Reform and Conservatives would have a combined majority between them.

But then, the likelihood of the five parties of the left coming together to form a government are lower, at around one in five.

Northern Ireland and independent MPs could end up being the deciders.

#ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Only a handful of council seats left to declare, but now the party (or lack thereof) controlling each of the 136 councils is now clear.

And here they all, in all their finery.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 22:00:

417 seats across 10 councils to go, some of which will only finish counting tomorrow.

Five-party politics have arrived in England, with 58 councils under No Overall Control. As these councils form new administrations, we'll learn just how ready for this new reality Britain really is.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

All the Scottish constituencies have now declared.

Only three sets of regional list seats to go.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Here are the largest seat swings, for better or for worse, for each of the five main parties in England.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Labour leader Anas Sarwar has held his Glasgow list seat, after being defeated in his Cathcart and Pollok constituency.

It looks like he will probably take the role of Leader of the Opposition in Hollyrood.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 19:00: Labour has now lost more than 1000 seats, to the benefit of Reform and the Greens. Though they are holding up relatively well in London, where counting continues. #ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Reform has been making strong gains in every region in England. Except for London. They won control of Havering, but very few seats anywhere else in the capital. #ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections
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Open post
Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

With less than a fortnight to go until the Senedd elections, the most likely outcome is going to be some kind of governing arrangement led by Plaid Cymru, supported by Labour.

The new electoral system was designed to make it harder for any one party to come close to a majority on its own. And it looks like it will do exactly that.

Oh, and the First Minister might lose her seat. Extraordinary under Party List PR.

#ukpoli #cymrupoli #Election2026 #Etholiad2026 #Senedd

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

The vote share has really not moved much in the last couple of hours.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Tisza is two seats away from a two-thirds majority.

This would give them the power to amend the constitution unilaterally.

It looks likely that they'll get there, but there are still a few seats that are too close to call.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

The drop in Fidesz support is pretty uniform across Hungary's eight regions.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

We're in the final hour of voting in Hungary's general election.

Turnout is already 5 percentage points above that in 2022, and is set to be the highest turnout since it lost its Soviet influence. This suggests that Hungarians truly do see this as a pivotal election.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 4mo ago

The last of the local election results are now in, following that final recount in Birmingham.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Still waiting on 95 seats across five councils, and then the #LocalElections count will be complete.

#ukpoli #Election2026

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 7mo ago

GREEN PARTY GAINS GORTON AND DENTON

And it wasn't really close either.

Labour drops to third, losing half of their vote from the general election.

#Gorton #Denton #ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 10:00:

Only 237 seats and five councils left to declare. Four of these are in London, where Labour has (mostly) been holding up (relatively) well.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Here were the winners of all 129 #ScottishParliament seats.

#ukpoli #Election2026

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
All of the results in Wales are now in. Plaid Cymru finishes as the largest party, with Rhun ap Iorwerth set to become the new First Minister. Reform leader Dan Thomas will become Leader of the Opposition. His party had no MSs at all before today. Labour and the Conservatives have both collapsed, with the Greens and LibDems just scraping in. #ukpoli #Election2026 #Etholiad2026 #Senedd
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
These were the winners of all 96 #Senedd seats. #ukpoli #Election2026 #Etholiad2026
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Polls are now closed. Around a third of English councils will count overnight. The rest, as well as the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd, will start counting tomorrow morning. #ukpoli #Election26 #Etholiad26
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Polls in Scotland, Wales, and parts of England are now open. They will close at 22:00 BST. Some councils will count overnight. Most will count tomorow, as will Scotland and Wales. #ukpoli #Election2026 #Etholiad2026
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Open post
Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

We're less than a fortnight away from the Scottish Parliament elections.

While an SNP overall majority is possible, I don't think it's the most likely outcome. It will mostly come down to the constituencies, and many of those are simply too close to call. If they do break the SNP's way, any majority could happen on a 30% vote share. So much for proportional representation.

#ukpoli #scotpoli #Election2026 #Holyrood

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Is anyone surprised that Trump's threats to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would have this market reaction?

Anyone? Anyone at all?

#Trump #IranWar #StraitOfHormuz

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

This was Fidesz's fifth safest seat. And now it's in Tisza hands.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

And there it is. Tisza has now clinched the 133 seats needed for a two-thirds majority, giving them the power to introduce constitutional change if they so choose.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 21:30 CEST:

TISZA has comfortably won this election. Viktor Orbán has conceded, paving the way for Péter Magyar to take office next month.

There's still a chance that they could finish with a 2/3 majority.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Under the Hungarian system, the wasted votes from the constituencies are added to the party votes, and the list seats are then allocated proportionally based on that combined total. Because they're losing so many constituencies, they get a lot more wasted vote. That gives them roughly eight seats more than they'd get if the list seats were based on party vote alone. #HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Voting is under way in the Hungarian general election.

Péter Magyar is hoping to bring Viktor Orbán's 16-year rule to an end. But with different polls saying different thing, it's hard to predict what's going to happen.

Polls close at 19:00 CEST.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 7mo ago

Here we go!

#Gorton #Denton #ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 7mo ago

Polls in the #Gorton and #Denton by-election open in less than 15 minutes.

This should normally be a safe Labour seat. But Reform UK and the Green Party are trying to cause an upset. Will either succeed?

#ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

All of the results in Scotland are now in.

The SNP will form a minority government. Labour and Reform have tied for second place; Reform would likely claim official opposition by virtue of having a higher vote share.

The Conservatives have just collapsed, losing more than half of their seats. Modest gains for the Greens and LibDems.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Reform has taken control of Havering. It was one of the few London boroughs to vote Leave ten years ago. And it's possible that one or two other boroughs in outer east London could be taken over as well later today. #ukpoli #Election2026 #LocalElections
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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 7mo ago

Counting in #Gorton and #Denton has finished.

Labour has all but conceded defeat, and the Greens are confident that they have won.

#ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

I'm currently getting Claude to plug the results into my graphics, but here's where we currently stand with around 6.5% reporting:

TISZA: 110
FIDESZ: 71
MHM: 9
No data: 9

TISZA is ahead in the constituencies while FIDESZ is ahead in list seats.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #valasztas26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

I've finally got results downloading into my graphics, and I'm now ready to call it.

Péter Magyar will be Hungary's next Prime Minister, ending 16 years of Victor Orbán's rule.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 7mo ago

Polls in #Gorton and #Denton have just closed.

The counting will begin shortly, and the result is expected in the early hours of the morning.

#ukpoli

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 00:00 CEST:

Around 97% of the vote has now been counted, and Péter Magyar's Tisza party has secured a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly.

Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party has been decimated, with 16 years in power coming to an end.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

STATE OF THE PARTIES AT 23:00 CEST:

Tisza has won a two-thirds majority in this general election, allowing Péter Magyar to make constitutional changes to the country.

Viktor Orbán has conceded defeat, his 16 years in power coming to an end.

#HungaryVotes #Hungary #Magyarország #Választás26

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago

Both Reform leader Malcolm Offord and Conservative leader Russel Findlay have won list seats in West Scotland.

#ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament

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Joe C @Joe_C_London@mastodonapp.uk
· 5mo ago
Three regional list results have been declared in the last few minutes. Reform has won its first ever seats in the Scottish Parliament, most of which have been at the Conservatives' expense. #ukpoli #Election2026 #ScottishParliament
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