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Trevor Tombe

@trevortombe@mastodon.social

mastodon 4.8.0-nightly.2026-10-06

Economics Professor at the University of Calgary | Alum U of T and SFU | Inflation, carbon taxes, equalization, internal trade, R, and more! | 💻 📊 📝 🍻

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14 Posts

Joined December 27, 2023

Webpage:

https://www.trevortombe.com

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 2mo ago

Trump’s tariffs are not an attack on Canada’s economy. They’re an attack on America’s. We should respond accordingly. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s best response: https://thehub.ca/2026/07/30/doug-ford-is-wrong-why-doing-nothing-at-all-is-canadas-best-response-to-u-s-tariffs/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Doug Ford is wrong: Why doing nothing at all is Canada’s best response to Trump’s tariffs

The Hub

Doug Ford is wrong: Why doing nothing at all is Canada’s best response to Trump’s tariffs

Everyone assumes Canada must hit back against Trump's tariffs. An economist argues the math says otherwise — retaliation could cost Canadians more than it costs the US.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 2mo ago

There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 3mo ago

While oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels, Alberta's fiscal situation remains dramatically improved. Accumulated surpluses since April means lower oil prices are needed to balance. AB is on track for modest surplus. A +$10B improvement.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 3mo ago

Roughly, there’s ~$800 billion in taxpayer-funded education sitting outside the province that paid for it. With Alberta and B.C. the largest beneficiaries. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the largest financial transfer nobody talks about: https://thehub.ca/2026/07/02/the-biggest-financial-transfer-in-canada-that-nobody-talks-about/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The biggest financial transfer in Canada that nobody talks about

The Hub

The biggest financial transfer in Canada that nobody talks about

There's a massive financial transfer happening in Canada that barely gets mentioned. Trevor Tombe breaks down what it is, who pays, and who benefits.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 7mo ago

Have Alberta's finances gone off the rails?

My latest for @TheHubCanada on the province's latest budget. https://thehub.ca/2026/03/03/have-albertas-finances-gone-off-the-rails/ #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon

The Hub

Have Alberta’s finances gone off the rails?

Alberta's headed for deficits again despite oil booms. The province that once bragged about surpluses is now projecting $2.3B in red ink. What changed?

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 6mo ago

What do rising oil prices mean for Canadian households?

In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the costs for gasoline, energy, and (just as importantly!) all other goods and services throughout the supply chain. Overall, about $1,000/yr/household.

https://thehub.ca/2026/03/18/what-rising-oil-prices-mean-for-canadian-households/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

thehub.ca

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 2mo ago

Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: https://thehub.ca/2026/07/16/population-aging-doesnt-have-to-slow-us-down/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down

The Hub

Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down

Everyone says aging will tank Canada's economy. Trevor Tombe isn't so sure — and his reasoning might surprise you.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 5mo ago

For all the noise around Western alienation, separatist petitions, and fed-prov fights, Albertans and other Canadians agree on more than they disagree. My latest with Brooks Decillia for @TheHubCanada with new survey results: https://thehub.ca/2026/04/30/canadians-and-albertans-are-not-as-divided-as-it-may-seem-new-survey-data-shows/ #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Albertans and other Canadians are not as divided as it may seem, new survey data shows

The Hub

Albertans and other Canadians are not as divided as it may seem, new survey data shows

Think Albertans and other Canadians are worlds apart? New data suggests the divisions aren't as deep as you think. The results may surprise you.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 8mo ago

Rising separatist sentiment could come with real risks to jobs and income. I estimate nearly 2 million jobs depend on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec.

My latest for @TheHubCanada here: https://thehub.ca/2026/02/04/what-rising-separatism-means-for-canadian-jobs/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

thehub.ca

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 6mo ago

Oil prices (WTI) ended March just under $102/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that's the second largest monthly $/bbl increase ever and the third largest % increase. #cdnecon

mastodon.social

Mastodon

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 6mo ago

Our governments’ finances face a growth problem, not just a budget problem.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on why productivity changes everything: https://thehub.ca/2026/04/01/the-fiscal-challenge-canadas-provinces-arent-talking-about/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The fiscal challenge Canada’s provinces don’t want you to talk about

The Hub

The fiscal challenge Canada’s provinces don’t want you to talk about

There's a massive fiscal problem brewing in Canada's provinces that politicians are desperately trying to avoid talking about. The numbers are alarming.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 8mo ago

New population projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta may become the third largest province within a decade, although much depends on the level of interprovincial migration.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260127/dq260127a-eng.htm #cdnecon #cdnpoli

www150.statcan.gc.ca

The Daily — Population projections for Canada, provinces and territories, 2025 to 2075

During a time of rapid demographic change, including historically low fertility rates and several recent changes in immigration and temporary resident policies, today Statistics Canada releases a new edition of its population projections for Canada (2025 to 2075) and the provinces and territories (2025 to 2050).

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 9mo ago

Alberta's "royalty rollercoaster" is larger than ever.

Oil price moves now cost the government ~5x more per $1/bbl than a decade ago. Something will have to give. And soon.

My latest for @TheHubCanada on Alberta's upcoming fiscal challenges: https://thehub.ca/2026/01/08/an-alberta-budget-crisis-it-may-be-closer-than-you-think/ #cdnecon #cdnpoli

An Alberta budget crisis? It may be closer than you think

The Hub

An Alberta budget crisis? It may be closer than you think

Think Alberta's oil wealth makes it recession-proof? New analysis reveals the province could be heading for a massive budget crisis within just a few years.

Trevor Tombe @trevortombe@mastodon.social

· 3mo ago

Some argue Canada should abandon equalization altogether, but the better path is to renew the entire system of transfers. My latest for @MLInstitute offers a simple, more transparent, more growth-oriented, and more sustainable option: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/rebalancing-canada-a-two-pillar-reform-of-equalization-and-federal-transfers/ #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Rebalancing Canada: A two-pillar reform of equalization and federal transfers | Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Some critics argue Canada should abandon equalization or federal transfers altogether, but the better path forward is to renew the system with a simpler structure.