The Downballot

Just a few months ago it would have been all but unthinkable for Republicans to cancel ad time for North Carolina's Senate race and redirect it to Kansas, a state that last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. But here we are. Top GOP group pauses Senate sp...

A reminder that Dems are *not* without power to fight back against the GOP's coming discriminatory gerrymanders—and they can do so *without* undermining any existing VRA districts. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:b3psimnw5xxta2n4h5qzxu55/post/3mknerar5nk2e

NBC’s source = police scanner audio. Makes you wonder why McConnell’s team thought they could keep this quiet. Also, they won’t say whether he’s still in the hospital. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:ihpglfqq3dapqjmwl2ntktil/post/3mpmttenhh22b

The TN GOP is doing remarkable favors for the endangered Andy Ogles in #TN05: • Making his already-red district redder • Removing the homes of both of his leading Dem opponents from his district • Removing the home of his leading GOP primary opponent from his district! RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mlb6j4cib22v

Maine's primaries are on Tuesday, but it may be a while before we know the results. The SoS says that ranked-choice tabulations "are expected to be completed prior to the Juneteenth holiday" but could come as late as June 29. This matters most for #MEGov & #ME02. Primary Election one week away

No governor anywhere in the country has been ousted by primary voters since 2018. Two of them—one from each party—are in danger of losing in 2026. Morning Digest: Two governors ...

VA AG Jay Jones: "My team is carefully reviewing this unprecedented order and we are evaluating every legal pathway forward to defend the will of the people and protect the integrity of Virginia’s elections."

It looks like Pennsylvania Democrats will test whether consolidating behind an independent can flip a dark red seat in the state Senate. GOP incumbent Camera Bartolotta will face a head-to-head with indy Jodi Borello now that the Dem nominee has dropped out. Trump won Bartolotta's seat 66-33. Democrat’s withdrawal from 46t...

Is that ... sewage? RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:xv3rzxy3wn6ogpryhdrksafd/post/3ml7pybzprs2v

Folks, a *very* exciting announcement: The Downballot has just published updated 2024 presidential results by congressional district for every state with a new map this year! That's 10 states in all, covering a full one-third of the House. Please dive in! The Downballot releases presid...

Oklahoma Republicans gerrymandered this U.S. House seat to make sure they never had a repeat of their shock 2018 loss. But Jena Nelson argues she has a path to unseat Republican Rep. Stephanie Bice—and national Democrats reportedly are listening. Morning Digest: The site of 20...

After the MO Supreme Court reinstated the 2022 map a week ago today, we reverted our pres-by-CD calculations to feature those numbers instead. We left them in place this week, which proved to be the right call based on SCOTUS' stay this AM. Find them here! www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downba...

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser beats Sen. Michael Bennet in the Democratic primary for governor. Bennet largely cleared the field last year when he unexpectedly decided to run, and there was a massive amount of speculation who he'd appoint to his Senate seat. Weiser's win makes that moot.

Jim Marchant said during that first Secretary of State campaign that anyone elected in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal.” RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:7vj2towokzui3hgna5u5u46f/post/3mo2byplokc2k Election deniers quiet on frau...

This claim is not remotely true. In 2006, Texas held primaries on March 7. On June 28, SCOTUS found #TX23 violated the VRA. New elections were held on Nov. 7 in that district and four others, with runoffs on Dec. 12.

The weird situation in MO: State Sup Ct said that GOP map (HB1) could *not* be used. SCOTUS declined to disturb that ruling. Federal district judge said that HB1 is the *only* map that can be used. Right now, that puts county clerks in a serious bind if they're to comply with both rulings.

Mitch McConnell says he'll be back tonight x.com/SenMcConnell...

Democrat Eliott Rodriguez, the former local TV anchor challenging GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, responds to her ad: "She owns all of these deportations, ICE harassment and racial profiling. She voted for all this. She gave Trump the money and the tools to do this." #FL27 RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:zkyhyxegzazeor2pbhsuoc5x/post/3mvpqupdqts23

Don't sleep on Montana's state Supreme Court race. Moderates have long held the balance of power on the seven-member body, but Dan Wilson, who is running with the state GOP's ardent support, would strengthen conservatives should he beat Amy Eddy, who is emphasizing nonpartisanship. Morning Digest: Conservatives ...

Two big names have joined the campaign to defeat a ballot measure that would repeal Washington state's new "millionaire's tax": @kenjennings.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy & @ricksteves.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy. Steves: “A new tax on fat paychecks like mine was just signed into law in my home state — and I like it.” Rick Steves, Ken Jennings back...

Republicans seem to be meddling in next week's Democratic primary for a key U.S. House seat in Michigan. Morning Digest: It looks like ...

SCOTUS' decision to allow unlimited coordinated expenditures between party committees & candidates is damaging to democracy—and it will harm transparency. Analysts had always been able to track independent expenditures by the DSCC, NRCC, etc., but now they'll probably never file IE reports again.

DCCC signals it's prepared to defend #ME02 after its favored candidate narrowly lost the Dem primary: "In one of the most competitive seats in the country, Mainers in the Second District have a stark choice this November: Matt Dunlap ... or Paul LePage" The Case Against Paul LePage -...

This is partisanship at its rawest. SCOTUS has clamped down on lower courts for rulings that could alter maps many *months* before an election—even when those maps have been judged illegal. Here, it's rushing to let the Louisiana GOP change a map *while an election is underway.* RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/post/3ml2sdbcquc2h

Wow RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:fsee6h3qfcy7k6qux56fhg4w/post/3mkoaw2hicc2q

A very important point: In just *three* weeks, Georgia will host two elections for its GOP-dominated state Supreme Court. Democrats have two unusually strong candidates running, and if they win, it would be a major step toward cracking down on gerrymandering. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:cxwuf5fs7rtkd6vkz4kt4pxe/post/3mknre6giv225

Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards, who faces a tough reelection battle in #NC11, now faces formal censure over sexual harassment allegations Ethics panel urges censure of ...

Finally got some more votes in the GA special. Dem Adrienne White is up 52-48, with the AP estimating that about half of votes have been tallied. Little change from earlier, when White was ahead 53-47 w/around a third in. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mogzxiql2s23

Why the current "no" lead in Virginia's redistricting referendum is likely a mirage. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:7vj2towokzui3hgna5u5u46f/post/3mk25zjozfs2a

Lots more in our new Digest: • A stunning new poll has Vermont's Republican governor losing, but caution is warranted. • Nevada Republican's new scandal tests GOP's hold on red House seat. • Democratic group spends over $1 million boosting former Rep. Tom Perriello's uphill comeback in Virginia. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mwdqvlx5hk2j

Whenever the Mississippi Senate race comes up on social media, someone will say the candidates need to win a majority to avoid a runoff. But that's just not true, because there's no runoff for this race. The Downballot puts on our mythbusting hat and explains where this confusion came from. Morning Digest: Why Mississipp...

There were questions about which party Duggan, a business-friendly moderate from heavily Democratic Detroit, would hurt more, but likely D nominee Jocelyn Benson is probably happy to see him gone. 2026 is shaping up to be a blue year, and the fewer X factors there are for Benson, the better. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mmeocbovsc2y

South Dakota’s Republican secretary of state, Monae Johnson, just endorsed the Democrat running to succeed her, Terrence Davis. Johnson lost the GOP nod at a party convention in June to Heather Baxter, a member of the state Freedom Caucus who wants to hand-count all ballots. A Personal Statement from Mona...

Astonishing detail flagged by @cstephenson.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy @tennesseelookout.com@bsky.brid.gy. Normally, county election officials must notify voters about district changes by mail. A new GOP bill, however, would let them skip that and just post a notice on their website—if they even have one. 14 TN counties don't.

The deadline has now passed for Nebraska's two new parties to nominate candidates for the November ballot. The America First Party (which the GOP hates) made nominations in five races. But it's not clear if the Working People Party (which Dems hate) managed to nominate anyone. Five candidates file for Nebra...

To be super clear, the federal district court did *not* "restore" the GOP map, HB1. Instead, it forbade the state from using anything *but* HB1. However, the MO Supreme Court explicitly said the state *cannot* use HB1. That ruling is still in effect. So we have apparently conflicting orders.

Liberal candidates are challenging two Georgia Supreme Court justices on May 19, the same day as the state’s primary. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:d4cpcgnaykgx3z3uq2askqs2/post/3mkzu4att3225

If a clerk uses HB1, they risk violating an injuction by the MO Sup Ct. If they use the 2022 map, they risk violating a TRO by the federal district court. Further legal proceedings will likely be required. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mv24kssajc2d

A plan to all but ban abortion in Nebraska fails after proponents fail to turn in enough signatures to place it on this fall's ballot. Effort to enact total abortion...

Wisconsin Republican Jessie Rodriguez is not seeking reelection to an Assembly seat that Kamala Harris carried 51-47. Welcome news as Democrats aim to flip chamber after 16 years of Republican control.

A thread on how we got to here in Missouri, and what happens next. For that, we head back to May of 2022. On the 18th of that month, GOP Gov. Mike Parson finally signed a new congressional map for the state's eight districts into law after a prolonged battle between hardliners and GOP leaders. RE: https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:alqdxbp33ceoyly2o46nvcrc/post/3mv27ccdtrk2u

This is quite something. Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who faces a competitive reelection battle in #FL27, posted a tweet critical of Trump's oil "deal" (her scare quotes) with Venezuela on Saturday. She then quickly deleted it and posted a new tweet calling it a "great deal."

The NYT waits until the 20th paragraph to credit the @njglobe.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy, which first broke this story last month and re-upped it last week. Politico didn't credit them at all. (We credited them in our first sentence.) Concern Grows Over Republican ...

When Democrats flipped #OK05 in 2018, it was a laser-eyes capper to a wild election night. Since then, Republicans have made the seat considerably redder, so if it's back in play ... hoo boy. www.oklahoman.com/story/news/p...

BIG: South Carolina's GOP-dominated state Senate just *rejected* a measure previously passed by the House that would allow the legislature to reconvene this year and redraw the state's lone majority-Black congressional district. It needed a two-thirds vote. x.com/JoeBReporter...