🚩🚩🚩 economic updste:
the US remains in a stagflation squeeze / brittle stabilization setup.
the system is still balancing between two forces:
👉 inflationary pressure: oil risk, food/freight lag, high rates, fiscal deficits, insurance/housing costs, tariffs, Ai infrastructure demand.
👉 deflationary pressure: weak consumers, falling participation, private credit stress, Ai cost compression, china demand weakness, possible oil oversupply if hormuz normalizes.
what we are watchng:
1.hormuz flow recovery toward pre war volume. 2. any iranian move toward tolls, permissioned routing, or ship seizures. 3. 30 year treasury yield staying above or below 5%. 4. private credit redemptions and BDC losses. 5. Fed language around hikes versus holds. 6. labor force participation. 7. Ai/semiconductor breadth and debt financed capex concerns. 8. consumer inflation expectations. 9. chinese crude imports returning or staying weak. 10. credit spreads finally widening into public markets.
things got less immediately dangerous, but not healthy.
oil panic cooled because hormuz is partly reopening and OPEC+ is trying to add supply. but Iran still wants control over the strait, so mid august is the next danger window.
the Fed is not cutting. inflation is still too high. jobs look okay on the surface, but participation and real wages are weak.
the biggest hidden risk has shifted from oil to credit and markets: private credit is showing stress, long bonds are still warning, and Ai/semiconductor stocks look increasingly fragile.
so the current state is:
relief phase, not recovery. less panic, still brittle.
happy 250! 🍾 and 🥂 heres to the next 250.. 😁