David Benfell, Ph.D. (he/him/his)
Ph.D. Human Science (Saybrook University, 2016), vegetarian ecofeminist (#vegan and #libertariansocialist) scholar, #anticapitalist. Disgusted by Republicans, furious at the Democrats.
A money quote if ever I saw it: “The administration is fighting hard to persuade the American public and American politicians that this [memorandum of understanding declaring a 60-day ceasefire in the war with Iran] is not a defeat for the United States.”[1] But there is no regime change, no agreement on Iranian proxy militias (e.g., Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis), and no agreement on Iran’s nuclear program beyond that they will not develop nuclear weapons, which they have long insisted they have no intention of doing. There will be a $300 billion fund to reconstruct Iran, a lifting of all sanctions against Iran, Iran will retain joint control with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. will withdraw its naval blockade and unfreeze frozen Iranian funds.[2] Indeed, “[t]he agreement is a record of US failure. People will see it and judge.”[3]
[1] Mike Hanna, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides
[2] Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides; Al Jazeera, “Read the US account of unreleased 14-point Iran ceasefire memorandum,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/read-the-us-account-of-unreleased-14-point-iran-ceasefire-memorandum
[3] Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, quoted in Al Jazeera, “Diplomat confirms that US and Iran have signed MoU electronically,” June 17, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/iran-confirms-that-mou-has-been-signed-electronically-by-both-sides
It’s worth noting that Donald Trump’s extension of a ceasefire with Iran[1] also enables him to avoid seeking permission from Congress to continue the war after 60 days.[2]
[1] France 24, “Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely as peace talks stall,” April 22, 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260422-trump-extends-iran-ceasefire-indefinitely-as-peace-talks-stall-war-usa
[2] Ana Faguy and James FitzGerald, “US lawmakers reject measure to block Trump from striking Iran,” British Broadcasting Corporation, April 18, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yve8dmvn5o
It’s possible there is more evidence to back Amir Azimi’s assessment of Iranian leadership.[1] If so, I’d like to see it. In the absence of that evidence, my reading is that the evidence supporting this assessment is much too thin.
[1] Amir Azimi, “Who is making decisions in Iran?” British Broadcasting Corporation, April 24, 2026, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm29m732vgno
CNN’s Reliable Sources newsletter yesterday (April 4) led with news that satellite imagery of Iran is being censored at the request of the U.S. government. All imagery providers, apparently, received the same “request.” The newsletter goes on to quote Josh Rogin saying, “We've had about four weeks of the administration telling us everything's fine, everything's going according to plan. And now everyone can see with their eyes that that's obviously not the case. So now we're back to square one. How do we get out of this?”[1]
It’s a pretty safe bet that if Donald Trump had good news about the Iran war, he’d be trumpeting it on Truth Social rather than inhibiting independent analysis. We can infer, then, that the news is not good. Which, at this point, is no surprise.
But we also won’t know just how bad the news really is. Which is rather strongly to suggest that the U.S. and Israel are getting their butts kicked.
[1] Brian Stelter to Reliable Sources list, “‘Information silence’ as US searches for missing F-15 crew member,” Cable News Network, April 4, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/newsletters/reliable-sources
It seems like Donald Trump has a choice between his unseemly affection for Vladimir Putin and his war on Iran: “‘We see how courageously and heroically the Iranian people are fighting for their independence and sovereignty,’ Putin told [Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas] Araghchi, saying he hoped they could get through a ‘difficult period’ and that peace would prevail.”[1]
[1] Al Jazeera, “Putin praises Iranian ‘courage’ as Tehran’s foreign minister visits Russia,” April 27, 2026, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/27/iran-foreign-minister-in-russia-for-putin-talks







